The Flu Really is Back!

I thought I would do a short post related to Igors latest post on Influenza.  I am a fan of Igors but don’t always agree. This is one of those times.

CDC FAKES High Flu Numbers in the US to Scare Us into Taking Flu Vaccines

Igor points out a useful fact.

It turns out that a year ago, the CDC changed the definition of “Influenza-Like Illness:”

As of now, any illness with “fever AND (cough OR sore throat)” is counted as influenza and would darken the map!

The fist thing that strikes me is 85 million cases of influenza in 2021-2022 flu season.  This should have resulted in 85,000 flu deaths assuming an IFR of 0.1%.  Clearly this did not happen since flu deaths were only reported to 5000 for 2021-2022 and 4 million flu cases (both estimates).

So apparently COVID broke the ILI surveillance, it was no longer useful for influenza cases due to the prevalence of COVID.   Some might suggest they just called flu COVID but all COVID cases in 2021-2022 come with a COVID positive test (unlike 2020-2031) and flu test positivity was low.  Contrary to popular opinion the COVID PCR test does confuse influenza with Sars-Cov-2

Changing the system and turning it into a measure of respiratory infection burden regardless of the virus makes perfect sense.  It pains me to agree with CDC but there it is

Of all outpatient E.R. visits — due to broken bones, poisonings, heart attacks, gunshots, influenza, Covid, etc. — consistently about 40% of E.R. visits come with a POSITIVE COVID TEST! (By the way, the only time the above number of “E.R. visits with Covid” exceeded was January 2022. This is how bad Covid is right now.)

I cant speak for whats going on in Igors hospital, but here is CDC and HHS hospitalization data

For the first time, influenza and Covid are placing similar burdens on patients and the healthcare system.

Flu hospitalizations overtake Covid for first time.

HHS reporting requirements added daily Influenza case reporting on February 2,2022

https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf

Here is another look at COVID VS influenza hospital admissions.  This does not mean there cant be isolated outbreaks like at Igors hospital but this is the overall look for the country

Flu hospitalizations overtake Covid for first time.

Here is a look from CDC’s dashboard

Compare this to 2020-2021

Here is the trend

Now its been alleged by some that hospitals are covering up COVID and calling it Influenza.  This is the exact opposite of the argument at the height of COVID that they were covering up Influenza deaths and calling it COVID

We have tests for SARS-Cov-2 that are specific for  SARS-Cov-2 and the same for Influenza.

Furthermore, hospitals are still given financial benefits for treating COVID patients and no such benefits that I am aware of exist for influenza cases.  Hospitals allegedly are facing some financial difficulty (of their own making) so would have no reason to call COVID FLU.

Heres COVID test positivity

Its definitely not gone, but we are reducing testing, which is what most of us were begging them to do for much of this Pandemic

This summer my 91 year old Mother in a Nursing home went to the hospital for treatment of a non-viral condition.  This is in North Carolina. No testing was done upon admission. On the day of discharge 5 days after admission her Nursing Home requested a COVID test before she was returned. She tested positive (no symptoms).  They requested she stay at hospital for another 10 days. The hospital argued it should be 5 days.  The Nursing home (small one) tested all its residents, everyone tested positive, so they took my mother back in 5 days (she tested negative).

A year ago everyone who went to hospital got tested, everywhere. This is a big change although obviously some hospitals do still test everyone .

In any event, the flu is back. Why did it disappear?  My favorite theory is viral interference kept it away for awhile.   Why is it back? Although the virus is still around there is less of it.  Add to this waning immunity due to flus hibernation and increased immune suppression among the population due to COVID jabs and repeated COVID infections, and you have a Perfect Storm.

How bad will it be? No idea.  Hopefully no worse than usual.  You can count on them exaggerating the problem, but that does not mean it will be a problem for many, especially the very old, very young and those who have unhealthy terrains that respiratory virus flourish in.

What to do?  Take Vitamin D and Vitamin C and don’t worry.  If you get sick stay away from grannie and young kids. Thats all you can do.  Trust your immune system. It works for most of us.