Study says Covid-19 Causes 10X Increase in All Cause Mortality Within 140 Days
Cardiovascular disease and mortality sequelae of COVID-19 in the UK Biobank
Published 10-24-22
https://heart.bmj.com/content/heartjnl/109/2/119.full.pdf?with-ds=yes
I just want to laser on this All Cause Mortality finding that a tweeter keeps referencing
Median age 65 (40-69) of participants diagnosed with COVID between March 1, 2020-March 1, 2021. Average follow up 141 days (32-395). No mention of vax status ( vax began Dec 2020 with priority given to most at risk)
4.5% of the COVID cohort had pre-Covid Heart Failure vs 2.4% of the matched controls
Findings: 10x death rate for non-hospitalized COVID COMPARED to non-covid.
How did they treat those whose symptoms worsened resulting in the non-hospitalized being sent to hospital and dying there. They don’t seem to say, so I will assume they get included in the All Cause Mortality Count.
Over 90% of deaths occurred within 30 days. Assuming this table holds true for the non-hospitalized at dx then it sure seems likely these were COVID deaths
All cause mortality outcomes:
Non-Hospitalized at dx COVID
266/14,304. 2% all cause mortality rate within 140 days
Hospitalized w/COVID at dx
8342/2,701 30% all cause mortality rate within 140 days
Of the 14,304 symptomatic COVID positives (average age 65) tested outside hospital the expected hospitalization rate would be 5%
(Remember this is pre -Omicron)
I couldn’t really find a great source for 5% but I think its more reasonable than the high numbers claimed below. If not my numbers are conservative
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death
[Links behind a paywall]
And based on this, although its for Omicron, 5% is certainly not a gross overestimate for those with an median age of 65
(3.8% 22.1/572.8) for 60-69 unvaxxed, but thats Omicron. Hospitalization rates were higher pre-Omicron
So about 715 of those 14,301 Covid Patients who tested positive outside of hospital would be expected to be hospitalized where they faced a 30% death rate under UK protocols, which means about 214 of the 266 deaths were likely due to COVID, leaving 52 deaths as non-Covid
This brings the risk ratio down from 10x to 2x. Certainly nothing to sneeze at but nowhere near the alarmist 10x figure cited.
Also, keep in mind 643 of those non-Hospitalized COVID positives at dx (4.5%) had heart failure. This is 261 more than if heart failure was as prevalent as in the control group, and may explain some of the excess
If I read this study correctly, it seems very deceptive, intended to make one think Non-Covid Excess Deaths are due to COVID infection. Nowhere does it mention how many of the 17,871 cases (hospitalized + non-hospitalized) died of COVID
And keep in mind the average follow up after infection was 140 days, with most deaths occurring within 30 days, and says nothing about Excess Deaths 2-3 years out, nor can we suppose the same results hold true for Omicron.
I didn’t want to get into the weeds with other findings. Its hard to hide All Cause Deaths, and thats a diagnosis nobody can dispute, I just wanted to debunk the 10 x increase in All Cause which seemed to imply Non-Covid when it actually seems to include COVID deaths.
I will accept being dx with COVID at an average age of 65 may increase your chances of dying by a factor of 10 , with 90% of deaths occurring within 30 days of dx
According to social security actuarial tables a 65 year old has a 1.6% chance of dying in one year.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
This is a 0.13% chance of death in 1 month. A 64 year old with non-hospitalized dx of COVID had a CFR (not IFR) of 1.8%, with most dying within 30 days of dx, so thats more 14 x higher than 0.13% (actually 12.6 X since 10% of deaths take longer than 30 days).
Feb 2021 in UK
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/recent-falls-in-age-specific-estimates-of-the-case-fatality-ratio-in-england/
End