I have not written much about the “War” in Ukraine for awhile , mainly because of the fog of War.
The blatant Ukraine propaganda is easily recognized but the pro-Russia side has its share of propaganda as well.
All one can do is look at the maps which both sides generally agree on and over time you can see slow measurable progress by Russia, but its certainly not very impressive even before the recent losses in Kharkiv
This progress is very slow due to the cancer of Donetsk. For 8 years Ukraine with the assistance of NATO have built heavily fortified and well equipped and armed trenches that are difficult to take out. Shelling of Russian occupied Donetsk civilian areas is ongoing and seems to be increasing over time. One cant help but ask how this is possible after 6 months.
Lets take a look at recent months
After Russia pulled back from Kiev in late March and started phase two of the war the Luhansk oblast and the land corridor to Crimea, especially Mariupol, have been won. The liberation of the Donetsk Republic has stalled. The number of Russian and allied forces fighting the war was kept steady or even decreased over time. Meanwhile the Ukrainian forces have grown. They are getting a very significant amount of arms from 'western' sources and new promises to keep those supplies coming.
This made the costly defeat at the Izium front, possible. Russia must decrease the territory they control as the Ukraine Army increases in strength unless they increase the size of their Army deployed within Ukraine.
Of course, they should also have been seeking to prevent the Ukraine Army increasing in strength by preventing troops and weapons from NATO getting to the front by taking out infrastructure like trains, bridges, airports , fuel depots and electric power plants and going after civilian and military command in cities of Kiev and Liev
Marko Marjanović write-up of the past week:
In just 4 days the Russians lost a vast area—everything beyond the Oskil river gone. Just like that.
Positions that took months for Russia to capture and expand were gone in an instant. (The whole of March to take the city itself, followed by battles to expand the bridgehead over Seversky Donets to its south.)
Particularly around Izyum, the Russian military had fought bloody close-quarter battles to take and expand positions beyond the Oskil and Seversky Donetsk and was now giving it all back in a rout.
Russia’s MOD explained that the retreating troops were being “regrouped” in order to “boost efforts in the Donetsk region” (does that sound familiar?).
Russell Texas Bentley on the ground in Donetsk (dude blocked me for saying something similar months ago)
I AM NOT SEEING THESE DUDES "STEPPING UP THE EFFORTS" IN THE DONETSK DIRECTION. IT IS _EXACTLY_ WHAT THEY NEED TO DO, AND WHAT THEY SAY THEY ARE DOING, BUT I AIN'T SEEING IT. SMELLS LIKE BULLSHIT TO ME.
Then here he says
As of 4:00 AM 12 September, reliable sources report
#Donetsk direction:
▪️ Shelling of the DPR capital and surrounding settlements by Ukrainian militants continues unabated.
▪️ Positional fighting in #Donetsk suburbs continues.
▪️ Ukrainian Forces are moving reinforcements to #Krasnogorovka for a possible attack from #Avdeevka.
Lets look back. from Edward Slavsquat (an American journalist until recently resident in Moscow) has a nice summary (link below)
On March 25, Russia’s ministry of defense claimed that operations in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy, and Nikolaev were designed to “tie down [Ukrainian] forces” and prevent them from “strengthening their grouping in the Donbass.”
A few days later, the Kremlin described the Russian withdrawal from these areas as a gesture of goodwill aimed at encouraging peace talks.
Seemingly overnight, Russia’s short-lived excursions into Kiev and the surrounding regions were rebranded as a “feint” that would allow for the swift liberation of Donetsk and Lugansk. (Current status: incomplete.)
A new narrative was born: with Phase I (“the feint”) a resounding success, the Russian military could now focus its attention on the Donbass. We were told, day after day, that Ukrainian forces in the east were going to be boiled alive, Ramen noodle-style, in a giant cauldron. Once the Ukrainians were encircled, Donbass would be forced to either surrender or crawl to the negotiating table
He goes on
It wasn’t until mid-May that Ritter conceded “Russia has shown itself unable or unwilling to [intercept weapons shipments]—as a result—the Ukrainians are having a meaningful impact on the battlefield........
Ukraine is rebuilding significant capability … Unless Russia is willing to jump across the Dnieper River and head into western Ukraine where it can eliminate the strategic depth that the Ukrainians are being gifted by the Russians, then demilitarization of Ukraine is not going to take place …
The fact that these advanced howitzers [provided by NATO] are operating on the front lines right now, shows there’s something wrong with the Russian methodology. And, unless they alter that methodology, I think we’re in for a very long summer.”
Mariupol was officially cleared of Azov fighters at the end of May (some of whom were later released as part of a prisoner exchange), but the long-anticipated encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Donbass never materialized. Reinforcements and NATO-supplied weapons continued to flow across the Dnieper.
But after taking Mariupol, Russia’s advances slowed to a snail’s pace. Gains in East Ukraine came to a screeching halt after the UAF was expelled from Lugansk in early July.
On August 10, the Saker penned a commentary explaining why he was no longer posting maps of the military situation in Ukraine.
“Unlike the first month or two of the SMO, there are very few changes worth showing on a map,” Andrei wrote, adding that the barely moving battle lines showed Russia was taking special care to avoid civilian casualties.
On August 24, Shoigu explained the lack of progress in East Ukraine.
“[E]verything is done to avoid casualties among civilians. Of course, this slows down the pace of the offensive, but we are doing it consciously. The special operation is going according to plan,” Russia’s defense minister said.
Less than three weeks later, Russian forces abandoned their positions in Kharkov region, endangering the lives of countless civilians who were promised that “Russia is here forever.”
Here are Gilbert Doctorow's observations of their recent position discussed in prominent Russian talk shows:
For his part, Vladimir Solovyov went beyond presentation of the threat posed by the United States and its allies to analysis of Russia’s possible response. He spoke at length, and we may assume that what he was saying had the direct approval of the Kremlin, ..
...
So, what did Solovyov have to say? First, that Ramstein marked a new stage in the war, because of the more threatening nature of the weapons systems announced for delivery, such as missiles with accuracy of 1 to 2 meters when fired from distances of 20 or 30 kilometers thanks to their GPS-guided flight, in contrast to the laser-guided missiles delivered to Ukraine up till now. In the same category, there are weapons designed to destroy the Russians’ radar systems used for directing artillery fire. Second, that Ramstein marked the further expansion of the coalition or holy crusade waging war on Russia. Third, that in effect this is no longer a proxy war but a real direct war with NATO and should be prosecuted with appropriate mustering of all resources at home and abroad.
Said Solovyov, Russia should throw off constraints and destroy the Ukrainian dual use infrastructure which makes it possible to move Western weapons across the country to the front. The railway system, the bridges, the electricity generating stations all should become fair targets.
Moreover, Kiev should no longer be spared missile strikes and destruction of the ministries and presidential apparatus responsible for prosecution of the war. I note that these ideas were aired on the Solovyov program more than a month ago but then disappeared from view while the Russians were making great gains on the ground. The latest setbacks and the new risks associated with the Western policies set out at Ramstein bring them to the surface again.
Looks like they are taking Solovyov’s advice now
Eastern Ukraine suffers blackout, Kyiv blames Russia
Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses Moscow of deliberately hitting civilian infrastructure a day after Russian forces suffered losses.
A large part of the embattled eastern Ukraine region suffered power blackouts and cuts in water supplies on Sunday. The outages will likely affect about nine million people in the region, including territory controlled by Russia.
“There is no electricity or water supply in several settlements. Emergency services are working to control fires at the sites that were hit,” Oleg Synegubov, the governor of the Kharkiv region, said in a statement on social media.
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/9/11/ukraines-east-reports-blackouts-water-cuts-officials
Of course, one would argue why spare the Western part of the Ukraine since much of the new arms and troops must pass through the West
Regardless, after the major losses in the Kharkiv area the Russian MoD in their best imitation of Baghdad Bob and the Ukrainian propagandists claim it was due to their strategic decision to remove forces to bolster the effort in Donetsk before the Ukrainian counteroffensive. This seems ridiculous.
The idea that one could mount a limited Special Military Operation against a country the size of Ukraine that is backed by NATO with only 200,000 troops and expect the operation would ever come to an end is ludicrous. To put it into context the US had 549,000 troops in Vietnam at its peak.
The US could just pull the plug on Vietnam not having to worry much separated by thousands of miles of Ocean. Russia cant do this, they have very long borders with Ukraine at its front door. Even if Russia chose to pull out completely there is nothing to guarantee Ukraine backed by NATO wont follow into Russia.
Lesson, When you start a fight you must finish it unless you have somewhere safe to run to. Russia has nowhere to hide, thats why they started the SMO in the first place. They said war was inevitable so they had no choice. Nothing has changed in this regard. War is inevitable , this is already a War , so it must have an outcome. Russia can’t cut and run like we did in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
Sure , with the status quo Russia could take back control over some territory, they could continue to kill a lot of Ukrainian troops, but the puppet NATO controlled government of Ukraine would not stop sending its soldiers to die and NATO weapons allows them to launch an endless supply missile and drone attacks on Russian occupied territories.
When a Special Military Operation is an Invasion of a sovereign country and lasts 6 months with no end in site its time to call it what it is. Its a War, and not just a War with Ukraine but a War with NATO, albeit a proxy War.
This War will never end until either Russia is defeated by Ukraine and NATO and Russia then broken up into pieces and colonized, or Ukraine is defeated and absorbed by Russia.
A third option is before defeat by either side the nuclear option is chosen and a nuclear holocaust turns Eurasia and maybe the world a nuclear wasteland
Since Putin does not seem to treat this as a War and is unwilling to undergo a full mobilization, one is left to speculate that his purpose is a never ending military conflict that serves to facilitate the destruction of the Wests Economy as part of the WEF Great Reset Agenda, which also serves to depopulate the Ukrainian Slav population before the New Khazaria is rebuilt and repopulated . That could be said to be a Fourth possible outcome.
His partner in this crime is US and European Elites who are using Putins Military Operation to cripple their own Economy by forcing reduced consumption via high prices and shortages which is consistent with the Net Zero Carbon Policy . Xi in China is doing something similar only he is doing it using the excuse of Zero COVID Lockdowns.
If you agree COVID Pandemic was a conspiracy of the Global Elites to bring on the Great Reset one only has to look at how China, Russia, US, UK, Europe, Israel have all marched in lock step in using COVID to control the people and cull the elderly while suppressing birth rates as part of a depopulation agenda. Sustainability and Depopulation are keys to the Great Reset.
My hypothesis is that the War in Ukraine is being fought in part to facilitate the Great Reset Agenda. Its not meant to end, its meant to be a long war. The Cold war was replaced by the Global War on Terror which was triggered by the 9/11 False Flag, this was replaced by the War on Covid, another False Flag. This is to be replaced by a a new Cold War with conflicts over Ukraine and Taiwan to serve as proxy wars against China and Russia, not unlike Orwells 1984 Oceania vs Eurasia and East Asia.