USA Excess Deaths-2022
And the coming Alien Balloon Invasion?
So now that 2022 death data for US is essentially complete, I will do 2 things here (2 Parts).
First I will look at states and see if there is any strong correlation between vaccination rate and excess death, one way or another (positive or negative). I was inspired to do so by a tweet which claimed 10 most highly vaxxed states had fewer excess deaths than the rest of states without much detail.
Second I will look at how COVID and Non-Covid Excess Deaths have trended over the year. Its quite interesting
Part I
I compare 26 states + NYC and look at their full vaxxed rate and compare to their Excess Death Rate as provided by CDC Provisional COVID Death Data. These 27 states/cities encompass 80% of the population and are representative of the whole. I don’t have the time or patience to do all 50 on my old iphone with my old eyes.
I choose All Cause Deaths vs Non-Covid Deaths because the COVID data can not be trusted and thus any Non-Covid death numbers cant be trusted.
Why not do this for 2021? Besides time , I feel its not very useful since for much of 2021 vax rate was low and it was changing more rapidly over time.
For 2022 I use the fully vaxxed rate as of March 22, and thats probably a good enough proxy for boosters and any changes during the year.
I’ll start with the Raw data from CDC Provisional COVID Death Data
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
The value of R is -0.0202.
Although technically a negative correlation, the relationship between your variables is only weak (nb. the nearer the value is to zero, the weaker the relationship).
P=0.92034
R2=0.0004
Basically, no correlation here. Might as well be throwing darts. The one take home, regardless of Vax Rate Excess Deaths Way Too High. But it could have been worse, right?
It actually is worse, way worse. Below is my Adjusted Data. Seen Note below for Adjustment Details on the Pull Forward Effect
The value of R is: 0.1351.
Although technically a positive correlation, the relationship between variables is weak (nb. the nearer the value is to zero, the weaker the relationship).
The value of R2, the coefficient of determination, is 0.0183.
P value .501664
So still no significant correlation, but less random and a positive one at that. Positive meaning more more vax = more excess death, but no statistical significance.
Data
Excess Death%
Vax Rate% Raw. Adjusted
MA 84.2. 7. 11.4.
NYC. 82.7 11. 24.2.
NY. 80.7. 11. 18.
NJ. 79.1. 9. 17.2.
VA. 76.5. 20. 28.
Wa. 76. 20. 26.
NM. 75.1. 20. 31.6.
Cal. 74.6. 16. 24.6.
Col. 73.4. 20. 29.1.
PA 73.3. 8. 14.
OR. 72.3. 20. 26.2.
Min 72.1. 13. 19.2.
IL. 71.2. 12. 19.
FL. 69.3. 16. 24.8.
AZ. 65.9. 25. 38.4.
KS. 65.2. 15. 24.
NV. 63.7. 22. 32.3.
TX. 63.2. 19. 27.1.
MI. 62.3. 11. 18.6.
OH. 60.4. 11. 18.
WV. 59.7. 18. 25.8.
KN. 59.6. 16. 24.
GA 57.2. 18. 28.8.
AK 56.8. 17. 26.6.
TN. 56.2. 18. 27.
MI. 53.6. 15. 25.2.
AL. 53.1. 14. 23.4.
US
(50 states. 69.2. 15. 23.2.
Note
Adjusted Excess Deaths. CDC Provisional Data expected deaths for 2020-2022 is based on 2016-2019 Baseline. This understates the Excess Deaths in 2021 due to Mortality Displacement. For 2022, Expected Deaths are reduced as deaths that would have occurred in 2022 occurred in 2020 and 2021.
The adjustment is 20% of Excess Deaths in 2020 and 2021 (233,000) . This number is subtracted from CDC Expected Deaths for 2022. This effectively reduces the total US Expected Deaths in 2022 by ~7%
Is 7% too high? Hell if I know. Its for 2 years of excess deaths not one year, so roughly 3.5% per year. Most of the excess deaths were in the elderly. Many of the 2020 deaths were elderly in nursing homes who have 30% mortality rate in a normal year. Up to 40% of deaths in the first year were nursing home residents. So it seems not unreasonable that 20% of the excess deaths in 2020 and in 2021 would have died in 2022 instead of 2020 or 2021. So thats what I going with in lieu of anything else to support a higher or lower number.
Anyways, for the purpose of this exercise you may disregard the adjusted data if you wish since it doesnt really alter the conclusion
Conclusion- There is no evidence of any benefit or harm with these vaccines regarding All Cause Excess Deaths. Given the high Excess Mortality in every Vaxxed State , the vaccine has to be a suspect. Unfortunately, without a control group you will never convince the pro-Vaccine crowd that its worthless garbage, let alone a deadly biological weapon.
Let me speculate on why there is no correlation one way or another. Its possible deaths by the vaccine (high vaccine rate) are offset by a reduction in COVID deaths. And vice versa, deaths prevented by being Unvaxxed are offset by more COVID deaths.
The difference between low vaxxed and high vaxxed rates is relatively low with a std deviation of 9 and only 16% difference of the high and low vaxxed states from the mean.
Furthermore, the incidence of COVID or Vax deaths is low. Annually, only 0.1% of the population dies from COVID and maybe as many as 0.1% from the vaccine. While 20% excess deaths sounds like a lot, its a relative number, but in absolute terms its only 0.2%. So its hard to pick up a signal without a control group, and they wiped that out.
Part II
Next, lets review the 2022 country wide data, broken down by COVID and Non-Covid. Granted, the COVID data is most likely garbage, but we are looking more for trends than at the absolute numbers
2022 DEATHS
Excess Deaths
COVID. ED %. Total Non-Covid
Dec. 13,646. 13. 33,261. 19,615
Nov. 9,793. 13. 30,523. 20,730
Oct. 9,581. 12. 28,298. 18,717
Sep. 10,767 13. 28,850 18,083
Aug. 14,012 . 15. 33,792. 19,780
July. 13,233. 15. 33,898. 20,665
2nd Half Total
71,032. 188,622. 117,590
June. 9,441. 12. 26,597. 17,156
May. 7,591. 10. 23,147. 15,556
April. 6,233. 5. 11,716. 5,483
Mar. 15,577. 6. 15,183. -394
Feb. 50,154. 23. 54,212. 4,058
Jan. 83,876. 37. 99,867 15,991
1st Half Total
172,872 230,722. 57,850
It looks to me they just are calling fewer deaths as COVID. Perhaps this is a more accurate measure of the COVID portion of Excess Deaths, but what exactly is causing the Non-Covid Deaths. Climate Change ? Long Covid? Gee, I wonder
That said, we went from 25.1% of Excess Deaths being Non-Covid COVID deaths in the first half to 62.3%
In the second half. Non-Covid Excess Deaths increased 103% in the 2nd half. Total Excess deaths only decreased 18.2% in the 2nd half despite COVID deaths decreasing 41%
Here is another look at Non-Covid Excess Deaths
2022 DEATHS
Non Covid excess Deaths
Monthly. Cumulative
Dec. 19,615. 175,440
Nov. 20,730. 155,825
Oct. 18,717. 135,095
Sep. 18,083. 116,378
Aug. 19,780. 98,295
July. . 20,665. 78,515
June. 17,156. 57,850
May. 15,556. 40,694
April. 5,483. 25,138
Mar. -394. 19,655
Feb. 4,058. 20,049
Jan. 15,991. 15,991
Conclusion
Total Excess Deaths tapered off a bit in the 2nd half , perhaps because people reduced new vaccine dose uptake, while sometime at the end of the first quarter COVID deaths were diagnosed less often to make the vaccine look better. They transitioned from calling those who died with COVID as COVID deaths to only calling those who died of COVID as COVID deaths (the underlying cause of death). This is how they should have been counting all along but they didn’t because they wanted to inflate COVID deaths to increase vaccine uptake and to hide Vaccine deaths.
Of course, by changing this they are exposing the Vaccine Deaths, and trying to seek explanations that will be accepted. However, they have rightly determined the average American is dumber than Forrest Gump when it comes to numbers, and will accept any nonsense explanation as true. For those who aren’t dumb and don’t accept it, they are probably betting people wont do anything.
Individualism is great, but individuals are not very threatening to the Establishment. They have perfected the strategy of Divide and Rule.
They also have another card to play. Americans love Wars. A common external enemy is the one thing that can unite the American people behind their government and memories of COVID and Excess Deaths will disappear from their minds. Who will it be? China? Russia? Aliens in Big Red Balloons? Stay Tuned.
