US-Non-Covid Excess Deaths
After looking at Taiwan excess deaths I thought I would take a closer look at excess deaths in US
US is a bit more difficult than Taiwan mainly because the first two waves of COVID began before vaccination began (December 14, 2020) whereas Vaccination began before or simultaneous with Taiwans first wave of COVID (April 2021). Plus US had a harder Lockdown than Taiwans 2021 soft lockdown which caused far more hardships on Americans and no doubt contributed to many excess deaths
Excess Deaths-US
Calculated based on 2017-2019 Averages
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Here are some screen shots as the cdc page takes awhile to load
Here is a graph showing the Pct Death Above Expected (DAE) over time
Note the uptick at the end which began shortly after the 2nd booster was authorized (more on that later)
Here is CDC monthly Pct Above Expected (based in 2017-2019 avg)
2020
DAE Covid All Cause Non CoV
Month- pct. Death. Excess D Excess D
Feb. 104- 25- 9,421- 9,400
Mar. 107- 7175- 17,650- 10,500
April. 138- 65,553- 88,780- 23,200
May. 121- 38,330- 48,692- 10,300
June. 113 - 18,026- 28,813- 10,800
July. 123- 31,135- 52,172- 21,000
Aug. 123- 29,913- 51,849- 21,900
Sep. 116- 19,158- 35,474- 16,300
Oct. 117- 24,930–. 39,798- 14,800
Nov. 129- 53,250- 68,022- 24,800
Dec. 144- 98,175- 112,202- 14,000
2020 Non-Covid EXCESS Deaths 177,000
2021
Jan. 139- 105,556- 104,830- (-700)
Feb. 120- 48,566- 47,091 -(-800)
Mar. 107- 23,265- 17,731- (-4,500)
April. 110 - 18,802- 23,368- 4,500
May. 111- 14,998- 25,603- 10,600
June. 110- 8,020- 22,297- 14,300
July. 114- 11,220- 31,675- 20,400
Aug. 135- 48,812- 78,928- 30,100
Sep. 141- 63,432-90,808- 27,400
Oct. 128- 24,930-65,673. 40,700
Nov. 123- 32,328- 54,000-21,700
Dec. 125- 45,619- 64,007-18,400
2021 Non-Covid EXCESS Deaths 182,200
2022
Jan. 137- 83,592 - 99,785- 16,200
Feb. 123- 49,932 - 54,158- 4,300
Mar. 106- 15,457- 15,156 - (-300)
April. 105- 6,157 - 11,668- 5,500
May. 109- 7,460- 20,870-13,400
June. 110- 9,170- 22,124- 13,000
July. Still counting
2022-Non-Covid EXCESS Deaths 52,100
So over 400K non-Covid Excess Deaths the past 30 months. More than we lost in WW II. Maybe Rand Paul might investigate that.
Here is a graph
[note-Its interesting but if you adjust Taiwans non-COVID excess Deaths for 2021-2022 and compare to US its quite close - 241K Taiwan through July and 234K US through June]
Obviously loads of COVID deaths in US over these 2 years making up 72% of the total excess deaths (in Taiwan Covid deaths made up only 35% of excess deaths) although frankly many of those COVID deaths might be from something else such as Lockdowns (especially in 2020), Deadly NIH Treatment Protocols denying repurposed drugs used off label at home or in hospital, Remdesivir, and of course, the Vax
I believe the recent decrease in Excess Deaths in US is due to lower vaccine doses plus we had over 1 million excess deaths the past 2 years so that expected deaths should be much lower than 2017-2019 average used in the calculations.
Dec 2020, January 2021 were the peak deaths of the 2nd wave but Deaths began climbing starting in November.
From April to July 2021 deaths attributed to COVID were lower and Deaths Above Expected % ranged from 107-114%. Then came Delta as many older fully vaxxed persons hit or exceeded the 6 month mark for their 2nd shot. August went BOOM and frankly the late summer 3rd wave seemed to merge seamlessly with the more winter 4th wave. That entire August -February period the DAE % did not go below 123 (November) and hit a high in September (141) with January (Omicron) coming in 2nd (137).
During that 7 month period extended waves of death there were 507,359 Excess Deaths and 158,800 of them were not attributed to COVID.
Most of the vaccine doses given during this time were 2nd or 3rd shots although there were some first shots due to mandates
Although FDA did not issue EUA until 9/22 according to CDC graph people were getting boosters as early as August although technically that would be off label and anyone knowingly administering it as a booster shot loses their liability waiver under the PREP Act
1st Shot
2nd shot
2021 Million Doses
July. 16
August. 24
Sept. 24
October. 29
Nov. 43
Dec. 44
2022
Jan. 29
Feb. 11
Mar. 6
So make what you will of that.
2nd Boosters-an interesting association
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Second Booster Dose of Two COVID-19 Vaccines for Older and Immunocompromised Individuals on March 29, 2022
Now look at how the deaths above expected (DAE) begins increasing with no corresponding increase in COVID DEATHS
Pct Covid
DAE. Deaths
Wk 1 ending 3/26 -103 2,484
Wk 2 103 1,887
Wk 3 103 1,525
Wk 4 104 1,381
Wk 5 105 1,331
Wk 6 106 1,404
Wk 7 107 1,401
Wk 8 109 1,644
Wk 9 109 1,713
Wk 10 109 1,896
Wk 11. 110 1,939
Notice how COVID deaths decline then start to bounce back up. Perhaps thats an effect of the booster, perhaps not, but if so it sure doesn’t last long, waning rapidly as predicted
Lets assume just for fun these are the lives are all saved by boosters (reduced Covid deaths). In 10 weeks we should have seen 24,840 COVID deaths IF wk 1 numbers were maintained but we saw only 16,121 deaths over the next 10 weeks. Lives saved by Booster 8,719. Yay.
But wait a minute, lets look at those non-Covid Excess deaths, at least those beyond 103 in Wk 1
Pct All Cause
DAE. Excess Deaths
Wk 1 103 1702
Wk 2 103 . 1684
Wk 3 103 1675
So in Week 1-3 we have established as a baseline All Cause Excess Deaths of 1700 per week
Pct All Cause. Deaths
DAE. Excess Above
Deaths. Baseline
Wk 4 104. 2209. +500
Wk 5 105. 2,690. +1000
Wk 6 106. 3229. +1500
Wk 7 107. 3742 + 2000
Wk 8 109. 4751 +3000
Wk 9 109. 4724. +3000
Wk 10 109. 4670. +3000
Wk 11. 110. 5176. +3500
Total. 17,500
So we can see 17,500 extra excess deaths above baseline greatly exceeds the 8719 COVID deaths saved (assuming the Booster gets credit for the saved) . Does this mean the booster is responsible for the increase in non-Covid Excess Deaths? Hell if I know , but if I was a health cop that vax is my chief suspect.
Could it be that these are really COVID deaths that they cover up to make the vaccine look better? Thats something to consider as well. Maybe both , some of this and some of that. Hard to say.