US 2022 Birth Data Complete (albeit provisional)

Looks like US 2022 Birth Data are in. I stumbled upon it accidentally following an exchange with a fellow sub stacker on miscarriage rates

This guy banned me for a day

https://arkmedic.substack.com/p/a-miscarriage-of-statistics/comment/13537330

Ok, I was a bit snarky but first  time on substack I have been banned

Why?

Unfortunately after he banned me he hid my reply.  Actually he deleted it.

I basically told him his assertion that the normal miscarriage rate of 5% is well below the accepted norms and I felt 10-12% was most reasonable (some estimates are as high as 10-22% which I feel are too broad).

I didn’t provide the evidence he requested for my assertion that there was no evidence for a significant decline in live births because substack does not permit me to post a screen shot of CDC provisional data through September 2022

However, i did attempt a search to find the link with no luck (deleted?) . So I posted my reply without evidence.

I spent 20 minutes looking for evidence.

When I found it , much to my joy it included the entire year of 2022.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/2023-2022-2021-Numbers-completeness-through-January.pdf

Unfortunately they don’t bother to sum the year totals or provide years earlier than 2021 but it is clear there is no significant yoy declines as seen in Europe or Taiwan

For your reference I extract the data by month

2022.              2021.        Pct change

Jan.      294,827.            277,172.      1%

Feb.      275,720.            266,355.     4%

Marc.    307,412.            302,692.     2%

April.     288,601.           293,208.     -2%

May.      297,513.            300,912.     -1%

June.    305,690.           313,597.      -3%

1st half 1,769,763.         1,753,896.   0.9%

July.      320,695.           326,117.      -2%

Aug.      335,778.            330,271.      2%

Sep.      312,120.             325,738.     -4%

Oct.       306,547.            315,414.      -3%

Nov.      306,540.            301,730.       2%

Dec.      313,547.             311,086.       1%

2nd half. 1,895,227.        1,910,356.  -0.8%

Total         3,664,990     3,664,292.   0%

No change

The first half yoy data might be a bit skewed because of the reduced births in the 1st quarter of 2021 due to 2020 lockdowns and unemployment, although 2021 - 2nd half might have been up as people played catch up

In any event, although this is not a direct measure of miscarriage rates, if rates were double or triple normal there should be significant declines in live births

My bans only for 1 day so I suppose I could send him this information later. But you know what? Screw it.

I want to emphasize I am not giving these jabs a pass on current and future fertility rates,   There are legitimate concerns due to reduced sperm counts and distribution of the vaccine to ovaries, and the second half data suggests we should keep alert. Also, European data covered by others suggests something is up there.

However we have to be objective when it comes to the data to avoid having the hypothesis of vaccine harm being discredited

Here is a look at birth trends in the HPV Era. As you can see 1-2% annual decline is normal these days

Year-     Births.              YOY Change%

2006-       4,265,555

2007-       4,316,233.        1.2%

2008-       4,247,694.       -1.6%

2009-       4,130,665.       -2.8%

2010-        3,999,386.      -3.2%

2011-         3,953,590.      -1.1%

2012-        3,952,841.         0%

2013-        3,932,181.         -0.5%

2014-        3,988,076.        1.4%

2015-        3,978,497          -0.2%

2016-        3,945,875.        -0.8%

2017-        3,855,500.       -2.3%

2018-        3,791,712.         -1.7%

2019-        3,745,540.        -1.2%

2020-        3,605,201.        -3.8%

2021-         3,664,292.          1.6%

2022-        3,664,990.          0