Update on California Birth Decline Signal

I just wanted to do a quick update for California Births given the updated provisional birth data

The table below is % Live Births YOY change

Clearly there is a significant decline noted the last 3 months (Avg 5.3%). This is greater than the typical average expected decline of 1.2%.

Why is the signal for the decline occurring later for California and what I expect may be for the US as a whole than other countries?. I don’t know. Sorry.

Here is a post on US Births through June 2020

USA June 2022 Birth Decline, Median 3.8% decline (25 states, 80% of US Population)

Notice the declines in late 2019 and first half of 2020. Certainly Lockdowns couldn’t have caused that as they didn’t start until the end of March and anyone 6 months or later in their pregnancy was probably at the point of no return.

I’ll let those with bigger brains figure it out.

Here is my previous post with more detail.

Another Look At California Births