Trump Negotiations. What Might Russia Demands Look Like

I haven’t wrote about Russia-Ukraine War for awhile. While I understand Russias reason for invading Ukraine I was not a fan of Putins execution in what I called the Forever War.

One of Trumps big promises was ending the War between Ukraine and Russia, so lets consider that.

Before I begin, I have never been to Russia, know no Russians beyond a former coworker 40 years ago, know no Russian, and I think Putins a fascist crook who facilitated the looting of Russia in the 1990’s at St Petersburg and was likely behind the 1999 Moscow Apartment Bombings  that got him elected President.

I should also say something about Trumps Election win. I pretty much called that last year although I hoped to be wrong. After all, I didn’t think he could win in 2016 and didn’t think he could lose in 2020. My losing streak is over.  Anyways, Americans have chosen, hopefully he wont do half of what he promised but some of what he promised I liked and thats probably what he wont deliver on. Time will tell. Good luck.

Now back to Russia. Trump is dealing with Russia from a position of weakness.  US has no cards to play when it comes to sanctions.   Trump wants out and Putin knows this.  Russia has significant military advantage over Ukraine and are poised to seize more territory.

Russia has invested significant human  and monetary capital to alleviate the threat of a hostile NATO backed militarized neo-Nazi aligned illegitimate government on its border and to rescue ethnic Russians being persecuted in Ukraine. The job is not completed

While Russia has made some gains on the ground they still have not secured all the territory on regions they have now declared as Russian

Ukraine has not yet been demilitarized or denazified. These were some of Russias initial goals. Furthermore, they still have significant borders north of Luhansk where they have not yet taken territory and which was used by  Ukraine to enter Kursk.

Russia would need all territory to be conceded East of Dnipier River excluding Kiev. This will enable them  to have an adequate security buffer against future threats from Ukraine. While they might like all territory along the Black Sea including Odessa this is not going to be surrendered in negotiations.  But that possibility is what Ukraine will face if they don’t reach an agreement

The Buffer zone being proposed based on existing territory held by Russia wont stop Ukraine from rearming and repopulating with immigration to restore and upgrade its Military with NATO assistance

That brings up the issue of NATO. Russia may demand a treaty with all NATO nations to end all NATO expansion, which includes Ukraine and end all arm sales to nations on Russias border.

To summarize:

Ukraine withdraws and concedes all territory East of Dnipier River except Kiev. No need for buffer zones. While both sides can use the river the river is their Berlin Wall. They can keep their Government or not. No matter

NATO expansion is ended forever in Eurasia, as are military sales to any country on Russias border.

US can keep their sanctions, Russia has no need to deal with the West as falling back into dollar dependence risks more asset seizures during the next disagreement.   

Ukraine will be unable to pay its debts and in return the West will seize its remaining assets. Ukraine will become a defacto Western Colony exploited for its agriculture and natural resources by Western Corporations, and no doubt exploiting its human capital via human trafficking and drugs

US can use the money saved from the Ukraine War to start something up elsewhere. Maybe Venezuela or Iran. Heck, lets take Mexico while we are at it.

Will Trump concede to all this? I doubt it. Will Putin accept less? Who knows.

If Putin accepts much less he or his successor will be looking at war with Ukraine and possibly NATO at some point in the future,

One concession that could be made by Putin is allowing Ukraine to keep territory East of Dnipier and North of Luhansk,  but require it to be demilitarized  and giving Russian inspectors  free access to inspect for compliance. Russia should not accept a buffer zone on their side of the border, nor accept the discredited UN or European inspectors.

Lets see how it works out. An alternative theory is Putin invaded Ukraine just to get Trump re-elected , so he settles for much less, but that may be my TDS acting up😀

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