Taiwan Excess Death Update-No End in Sight
I am going to keep this short.
March death data is out and its not good. Second highest monthly death toll of the pandemic after June 2022 with 20,573 deaths
https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/en/2121?sn=23100549
Although COVID deaths have comedown a bit there were still 1,085 reported deaths by my estimate. Since they stopped daily reporting on March 27 I had to extrapolate, which should still be pretty close since we only had 4 days of a gap and they are reporting weekly COVID deaths
While COVID deaths came down, Non-Covid deaths increased. Third highest month after June and August 2022 clocking in at 2,535 deaths.
To remove the monthly noise I will continue using quarterly results. The first quarter of 2023 is the 2nd deadliest quarter of the Pandemic clocking in at 10,435 Excess Deaths close behind the 2nd quarter of 2022 which came in at 11,185
One word on Excess Deaths. This is only an estimate as I do not know what expected deaths should be, at least not precisely. So I am now using the 2017-2020 average deaths as the base line . While Taiwan is an aging population this baseline typically only increases 0.6% per year due to an increased mortality rate but I am assuming mortality displacement due to earlier deaths of elderly which account for much of the excess deaths more than compensates for that in 2023. Maybe I am wrong so just take excess deaths to mean those deaths above the 2017-2020 average.
Here is the basic Raw Death Data
2021
Total. Excess. Covid. non-Covid
Q1 47,626. 1,312. 0 1,312
Q2 46,023. 4,111. 700. 3,411
Q3 44,369. 1,792. 150. 1,642
Q4 45,714. 3,185. 0. 3,185
2022
Q1 48,680. 2,266. 0. 2,266
Q2 53,097. 11,185. 5,801. 5,385
Q3 52,550 9,973. 4,404. 5,569
Q4. 52,503 9,974. 4,443. 5,531
2023
Q1 56,849. 10,435. 3,781. 6,654
Note 0 includes any number between 0-9
2017-2020 Avg
Qtr 1. 46,414
Qtr 2. 41,912
Qtr 3. 42,577
Qtr. 4. 42,529
I will note that COVID vaccinations began in Q2 of 2021. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation. Other factors may be Long Covid, Climate Change, 5G. Almost bit my tongue off typing this but we aren’t in Kansas any longer.
I neglected to mention adverse mortality impacts of masking as a cause. Although mask mandates have ended except on public transportation and hospitals, many still wear them
No idea what the COVID situation is now since they stopped reporting all but hospitalized cases but I sure hear a lot of ambulances recently which happens as a new wave begins taking off, and for some reason COVID seems to like May and June in Taiwan, although its getting comfortable with every month now. Of course, I might be just hypersensitive to the ambulance now that I will have a double 6 in my age soon,
Vaccinations seem to be tapering off after a pre-Lunar New Year burst
But keep in mind Taiwan has only 1/15 the population as the US, so 2000 a day is like 30,000 a day in US
So I will end it here.