Taiwan Births and Deaths. Double Whammy!
Shortly after I posted this to Igor on Taiwans birth decline Substack stopped supporting my older version of ios. Must be a coincidence (I dont generate revenues for them) . Anyways, took me awhile to upgrade.
That was May. Junes data is in. Its looking worse people
Following a 23.24% decline in births yoy in May the decline accelerated to 27.66% in June. So much for the hope May was blip.
I looked back over time to see if this type of decline or volatility was usual in Taiwan. Sure enough there is a lot of noise, especially January and February which may be due to the Lunar New Year falling on either January or February
From July 2021-June 2022 there have been 11 months of yoy monthly declines including a 19.49% decline in December.
Vaccinations began in April 2021 starting with elderly and HCW
2022 births (% change yoy)
June. -27.66
May. -23.24
April. -8.5
March. -7.5
Feb -16.4
Jan. +36.83
2021
Dec -19.49
Nov -4.09
Oct -6.16
Sep -2.82
Aug -1.56
July -6.38
June +6.18
May +0.53
April -4.66
March -3.82
Feb -15.06
Jan -23.25
2020
Dec +3.73
Nov -0.21
Oct -13.58
Sep -4.67
Aug -10.77
July-16.49
June +10.56
May -16.12
April. -9.95
March -1.37
Feb +8.31
Jan +27.01
2019
Dec +11.66
Nov -8.53
Oct +3.32
Sep +4.46
Aug -5.41
July +2.69
June -5.16
May -4.53
April. +4.45
March -12.79
Feb -7.21
Jan +0.13
Its too early to lay all the blame on the vaccines. Certainly COVID measures and resulting economic uncertainty have put a damper on new marriages and plans to expand a family. Marriage out of wedlock unlike the West is very rare.
Still, the recent study on the vaccines effect on sperm count cant be overlooked,
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35713410/
Although the study suggests the effect is temporary the underlying data is less reassuring. As with many studies today the conclusions are sometimes detached from the data
And there seem to be declines in other countries as reported by Igor and others
Taiwan was already one of the most barren countries in the world regarding Fertility. Only 4 countries (and yes, Taiwan is a country) had lower fertility rates after over 20 years of decline. Some of that was due to socio-cultural change with more women pursuing careers and postponing having children and the economics of supporting a child in a country with exorbitant housing prices
I wont say anymore on births until I see more data but I might rewatch Children of Men
Now for more glum news on the death front here on Taiwan. In May and June which are the two months in 2021 + 2022 where most of the COVID deaths have occurred and the biggest pushes to vaccinate/boost the elderly population have taken place
Based on my calculations using data from Dep of Household Registration and CDC Taiwan there have been about 15,000 excess deaths compared to the 2016-2020 average in 2021/2022 in May/June
https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/en/2121?sn=22189412&p=1
To put this in perspective, this is about 225,000 excess deaths if adjusted to the US population size and over 1/2 are not from COVID
May Deaths
2016-2020 average 14,000 deaths
2022 17,409 deaths + 15.23% yoy increase
3400 excess deaths
2200 Covid deaths
1200 unexplained deaths
U/C 0.5 (Unexplained/COVID)
The Covid Deaths are painfully tabulated from CDC daily pdf reports showing when the patient dies and differs from the daily COVID death report total. The Household Registration counts deaths based on death certificate date which will be the same as the death date (not the CDC reporting date)
2021 -15,108 deaths + 13.83% yoy
1100 Excess deaths
COVID deaths ~ 200 (+/-25)
Unexplained deaths 900
U/C = 4.5
2016-2020 14 000 avg deaths
Yr. Deaths % yoy
2020-13,272. -9.44%
2019-14,655. +2.28%
2018-14 ,328 +2.98%
2017-13,914. -2.28%
2016-14,238. + 11.22%
It was really the June report which caught by eye. They reported an increase in deaths yoy which is 26.44% increase. However, June of 2021 was Taiwans worst month fir COVID deaths in 2021 so its deaths were up 19.77% compared to 2020. So June 2022 had almost 50% increase in deaths compared to 2020
June Deaths
2016-2020 average 13,500 deaths
2022 21,033 deaths + 26.44% yoy
7,500 extra deaths in 2022
4300 COVID deaths
3,200 unexplained deaths
U/C 0.8
2021 16,539 deaths + 19.77% yoy
3,000 extra deaths in May 2021
~ 600 COVID deaths (+/- 50)
Unexplained deaths 2400
U/C = 4
2016-2020 13,500 avg deaths
Yr. Deaths. %yoy
2020 13,893 +4.44
2019 13,302 + 1.99
2018 13,043 -9.76
2017 14,453 +7.50
2016 13,446 -1.95
So what are the potential reasons for the unexplained deaths?
Undiagnosed COVID.
This seems very unlikely, especially in 2022. If anything many of those deaths attributed to COVID may be dying with and not from COVID
2. Disruption of normal Medical Care.
This is possible, at least in part. Patients might delay treatment or examination for other diseases when there is a lot of COVID going around.
3. Stress/Economic Hardship. Cant rule it out although it seems less likely for 2022 as unlike 2021 there were no lockdowns. It might explain some of the excess deaths in 2021
4. Something, something else.
Conclusion- Taiwan has had a serious wave of non-COVID excess deaths coupled with declining births. Fortunately the wave of COVID death seems to be winding down although July will still likely see significant excess deaths due to COVID alone.
Unfortunately I cant find age stratified deaths overall but COVID deaths like elsewhere are mostly in the elderly or those with comorbidities.
Taiwan began vaccinating children 12-17 in October and after a brief pause due to myocarditis concerns resumed them in December.
Age 5-11 began in May. In June the first cases of MIS-C began to be reported that were attributed to COVID. Almost 70% have received 1 shot. Taiwan already has a remarkably small population of children (16% under 18) in the population. Hopefully the kids wont be harmed as replacements may be in short supply. I guess we will have to wait for the experiment to progress.