Taiwan April Update-Good News + Bad News, or Just Blips
Its that time of the month again. Report on April Deaths and Births is out
https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/en/2121?sn=23130571
Deaths. Births
Apr. 15,572. (+7.6%)* 9,643 (-21.4%)#
* vs 2018-2020 avg
# vs 2021
*Excess Deaths -1,003
COVID Deaths ~450
Non-Covid Deaths ~550
#Pull Forward Deaths (20%) ~600
•Adjusted Excess 1,603 (12.3%)
•Adjusted Non-Covid 1,150 (8.2%)
*Estimated from Weekly Reports of average daily deaths
# Following Ethical Skeptics advice that 20% of previous years Excess Deaths will be reflected as lower expected deaths in the following years death totals
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1635606835532034050?s=20
•Adjust taking into account Pull Forward Effect and comparing to 2018-2020 average
Notes-Deaths
This is the first month with fewer than 1000 COVID deaths since April 2022
Given the high death count in March it may be just a blip, but if not this is a good sign
Notes-Births
Wow. 21.4% decline. But lets be cautious, March wasn’t too bad and Monthly births can be volatile
So lets look at 2023 as a whole
2023. 2022. ( % YOY change)
Jan-April
Deaths. 74,190. 63,735. (+16.4%)
Births. 43,210. 46,764 (-7.6%)
Thats better, only 7.6% decline. Sounds high but Taiwans births have been in free fall for some time.
While I don’t rule out some effect from the you know what, I consider other factors could be at play like HPV vaccination and 5G. Unfortunately nobody is looking at this so we don’t know
Here is US birth decline through 2022 for reference (HPV was approved in 2006)
Anyways, lets see what May brings. May was a pretty brutal month in 2022 and 2023 and cases seem to be on the rise.
Taiwan finally provided new data on new complicated cases and deaths after delaying a week, but only in Chinese
https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/4UkWFa5CxfshmQio18DJIQ?typeid=9
Lets look at the trends
Deaths. *Complicated Cases
2/24-3/23. 35/d. 119/d
3/24-3/30. 25/d, 96 p/d
3/31-4/6. 15/d, 84 p/d
4/7-4/13. 17 /d 86 p/d
4/14-4/20. 13/d. 93/d
4/21-4/27. 13/d. 99/d
4/23-4/29. 12/d
4/26-5/2. 114/d
4/30-5/6. 15/d
5/3-5/9. 116/d
*Complicated cases are those designated as Moderate or Severe. These have made up 0.5% of all Cases over the past year, so you can do the math to estimate cases assuming the CFR has not changed (x 200). It is impossible to calculate the CFR now so best to leave it alone.
The interesting observation is that the 2/24-3/23 numbers show Deaths are 29% of Complicated Cases. Based on the last weeks data they are 13%.🧐
One possible explanation is that in April cases were dropping while in May they seem to be climbing again.
So lets just stick with Complicated Cases (CC)
CC. % Change (WOW)
2/24-3/23. 119/d. -
3/24-3/30. 96 p/d. -20%
3/31-4/6. 84 p/d. -12.5%
4/7-4/13. 86 p/d. +2.5%
4/14-4/20. 93/d. +8 %
4/21-4/27. 99/d. +6.5%
4/26-5/2. 114/d. +15%
5/3-5/9. 116/d. +1%
I think I see why they delayed the 4/26-5/2 report . Under control now though, unless you consider that Complicated Cases are up 35% from their 3/31-4/6 low. Yet daily COVID deaths are the same at 15/d.🤷♂️
So I’ll end it here