Sri Lanka-Mission Colombo
This is rather long so it night get cut off if you get by email. I cant say I am an expert on Sri Lanka but when I see Mass Protests and Resignations and a concerted effort to blame China or Russia by Western Media I immediately pull on my Color Revolution Sniffer, otherwise known as Duck Duck Go and start looking
Last time I paid much attention to Sri Lanka was after the 2004 Boxer Day Tsunami
Now for a Financial Tsunami.
The official narrative seems to be that Sri Lanka has fallen into Chinas debt trap . A financial crisis triggered by the impact on their Tourism Industry from Easter Sunday Bombing in 2019 and COVID from 2020-2022, and now the Russian-Ukraine War and inflation due to Western Sanctions on Russia . Supposedly this has caused Chinas Debt Trap to spring open and force Sri Lanka to default on its debt thus collapsing its currency and causing even more inflation .
So my first step was to find out how much they owe, and who do they owe it too. That should be simple, right? Not as simple as you would think. You get a lot of China, China, China but here is a picture for you
https://m.dw.com/en/sri-lankas-foreign-debt-default-why-the-island-nation-went-under/a-61475596
Sri Lanka has amassed USD 51 billion in foreign debt, of which 5 billion is owed to China but has suspended repayment of nearly USD 7 billion due this year, most of it owed to the West
Market Borrowing basically means Western Bankers and US Sock Puppets -Japan, ADB and World Bank
Lets look at some of the Market Lenders
4-6-22 EXCLUSIVE BlackRock, Ashmore part of Sri Lanka's creditor group ahead of debt talks
LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Asset managers Blackrock Inc. (BLK.N) and Ashmore Group Plc. (ASHM.L) are among the top holders of Sri Lanka's international bonds that form part of a creditor group as markets prepare for a potential debt restructuring, a source said on Wednesday.
The bondholder group, which hasn't been formally announced yet, holds more than 30% of country's foreign sovereign bonds, the source familiar with the situation told Reuters.
The country has struggled to pay for critical imports including fuel, food and medicines.
Sri Lanka announced last month it would seek help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help it solve its worst financial crisis in years. Rating agency Moody's said on Wednesday that the extended period of political uncertainty could delay ongoing discussions to secure other external financing.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-blackrock-ashmore-part-sri-lankas-creditor-group-ahead-debt-talks-2022-04-06/
Seeking help from the IMF is like borrowing from the Mafia to pay your monthly credit card bill. Not recommended.
This article describes very well Sri Lankas situation
According to the Sri Lankan Department of Foreign Resources, the composition in percentage terms of the foreign debt of Sri Lanka in April 2021 was as follows:
International capital market borrowing 47 percent, Asian Development Bank 13 percent, China 10 percent, Japan 10 percent, World Bank 9 percent, India 2 percent, and others 9 percent.
First, borrowing in international capital markets: After a devastating civil war ending in 2009, the government resorted to expensive borrowing from international bond markets for the reconstruction process. These sovereign loans, from mostly Western financial investors like American BlackRock and British Ashmore constitute the greatest part of the external debt of the country (47 percent). It was the scramble to repay some of this debt, that matured in 2017, that pushed the Sri Lankan government to offer the Hambantota Port for lease. China accepted the offer in return for $790 million that was used to repay the debt to the international markets, not to China.
The bond market is a brutal, profit-seeking force that has a secondary market where investors sell the sovereign debt of troubled countries to so-called "vulture funds" that buy the debt with big discount from the investors to later demand full payment from the debtor nations. Repayments must be made on time, otherwise the country will be shut down from lending. The vulture funds sue sovereign debtors in UK and US courts where, under the threat of seizing the assets of those nations abroad, the courts usually judge in favor of these vulture funds.
Second, the trade deficit: Sri Lanka has a major dependency on imports of oil and gas and their refined products for transport and power generation. In recent years, the global prices have increased but in 2021-2022 skyrocketed. These items, in addition to fertilizers, constitute the most part of the imports of the country.
In 2020, total exports were $10 billion, while imports stood at $16 billion ($6 billion deficit). In 2021, the deficit increased to $8 billion as exports amounted to $12 billion and imports $20 billion. Consequently, the current account deficit widened significantly to 4 percent of the GDP in 2021, compared to 1.5 percent of GDP registered in 2020.
Third, collapse of tourism sector: According to the Sri Lankan Tourism Authority, earnings from tourism have been the major contributor to the surplus in the services account for many years. The income, in foreign currency, and level of employment were substantial until their collapse.
First, the Easter terror attack by suicide bombers in April 2019 was a major setback for the tourism sector. A second disaster hit with the 2020 outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which reduced the number of tourists visiting the country to a trickle.
A look at the numbers gives a clear picture. Foreign tourism income reached $3.9 billion in 2017, $4.4 billion in 2018, $3.6 billion in 2019, $682 million in 2020, and $507 million in 2021.
The government supported the industry by compensating for the losses and avoids social and political unrest. The price the government paid was that borrowing increased internally and externally. It is important to note that the tourism sector has a large share of the labor force of Sri Lanka of 8 million workers (total population is 20 million).
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1269490.shtml
So I am rather skeptical that China is responsible, not that I don’t believe they set debt traps, but they really are not well positioned to spring these traps now. It will be hard to lure more suckers if you give up the game too early.
What else might be going on here?
First we must understand Sri Lanka strategic importance ? From the state department
Positioned at the geographic and political heart of the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka is the epicenter of the 21st century struggle for regional influence. Situated between the Persian Gulf and Red Sea to the west and the Straits of Malacca and Sunda to the east, Sri Lanka is arguably the most strategically located maritime nation in the region. More than 60,000 ships – including two- thirds of the world’s seaborne crude oil, half of its container ships, and all U.S. Navy vessels passing between the 5th and 7th Fleets – annually transit Sri Lankan waters.
In line with the Administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance and 2022 Indo- Pacific Strategy, Mission Colombo seeks to advance America’s national interests by building a strong, long-term partnership with Sri Lanka, through reinforcing Sri Lanka’s tradition of democratic governance, its capacity to protect its sovereignty, and its ability to pursue sustainable economic development, all while promoting and emphasizing America’s core values. A healthy, collaborative bilateral relationship can serve as a lynchpin for the sustainment of a free, open, connected, and secure Indo-Pacific.
Since 2015, Mission Colombo has endeavored to revive the bilateral U.S.-Sri Lanka relationship, adding military cooperation, foreign assistance resources, and people-to-people programming to what had been a constrained relationship following the 30-year civil war. This enhanced cooperation is predicated, however, on the Sri Lankan government’s continued willingness to fulfill its commitments on post-war reconciliation, constitutional reform, human rights, and accountability for victims of all relevant conflicts. Wounds from war against the terrorist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and internal insurrections are still fresh, but the United States is committed to helping Sri Lanka achieve reconciliation for all ethnic and religious communities.
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ICS_SCA_Sri-Lanka_Public.pdf
From another source we see China and India competing as well with the West
Because today the strategic importance of this country is determined by the fact that it is located on one of the world’s most important trade routes, acting as an intermediate hub on it. It is as important as Singapore.
But in order to fulfil this role properly, the available port facilities need to be state-of-the-art. And the upgrading of the same port of Colombo is being carried out by Chinese companies. Moreover, a new hub, Hambantota, is being built on the southern tip of the island, which was previously completely deserted.
Beijing was given the right to build Hambantota and the subsequent 99-year lease on the port. Moreover, an undertaking has been obtained from China not to use Hambantota for military purposes. Beijing says it does not need to, as the Pakistani port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea, which incidentally is the terminus of Pakistan’s (one of the most important) BRI land route, is sufficient for such purposes. The same role will not be ruled out for Hambantota as a crucial trans-shipment point for the BRI maritime portion.
In particular, the country was one of the points of visit for Mike Pompeo during his last (late 2020) trip abroad as US Secretary of State. Negotiations with the leadership of Sri Lanka and several other countries visited (above all Vietnam) have been exploratory as to the possibility of expanding the newly formed Quad configuration comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia. In Colombo, Pompeo made a number of amusing remarks, stating in particular the ‘partnership’ nature of the US coming to a country, as opposed to the ‘predatory’ policies of the CCP in the same countries.
[ Note: -Quadrilateral Strategic/Security Dialogue (“the Quad”)
This is an INFORMAL dialogue between US, Japan, Australia & India initiated in 2007 by PM of Japan, US VP Dick Cheney, Australian PM John Howard and Indian PM Manmohan Singh.
The dialogue parallels with joint military exercises (Exercise Malabar)
The quadrilateral dialogue is primarily to respond to Chinese economic & military growth.
Now the QUAD includes UK and France. US seeking to include Sri Lanka into its line of control in the Bay of Bengal.]
But the main destination of Pompeo’s said tour was India, which is also the main opponent of China’s in the struggle for influence in Sri Lanka. It was the problems in Chinese-Indian relations that once again came to light during the struggle to win the order for the construction of the Hambantota port.
Unfortunately, the competition between the two Asian giants for influence in Sri Lanka and other crucial island states in the Indian Ocean (Maldives, Mauritius) has not abated since then. The visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi to Sri Lanka in early January this year during his traditional annual tour of a number of countries in Africa and Indian Ocean island states was met with suspicion in New Delhi.
It is important to bear in mind the complexity of the situation in which the latter find themselves, as they have to manoeuvre in the field of tensions that are being shaped in the region by the world’s leading players. Each of them has its own interests to uphold. The main purpose of the visit to India in early February this year by Sri Lankan foreign minister Gamini Lakshman Peiris seems to have been to reassure New Delhi that the bilateral relationship was not threatened.
In a demonstration that India is always ready to help its southern neighbour in an emergency, India concluded an agreement in mid-February to supply Sri Lanka with 40,000 cubic metres of diesel and petrol, which proved to be an extremely timely step in the context of the growing energy crisis on the island.
However, once again, the situation around Sri Lanka is an important indication that the state of Chinese-Indian relations is becoming one of the major factors shaping developments not only in the Indian Ocean region, but also in the entire Indo-Pacific region.
Ok. So we can see it coming together. Obviously China and India are important factors but its the location that strikes me as most important
One might look at Sri Lanka as the Taiwan of the Indian Ocean, at least for the US. As we can see from the Map should a war between the US and China break out over Taiwan its going to be very difficult for China to move goods and supplies in and out through the Front Door (Pacific Ocean and South China Sea). This leaves only the backdoor which is the Indian Ocean, and Sri Lanka is strategically located
The strategic location of Sri Lanka is obvious. Military control of Sri Lanka gives us the ability to control or impede free flow of resources to & from China. Half the world’s container traffic passes Sri Lanka. US needs a weak Sri Lanka to dominate & force its presence.
More than 80% of world’s sea trade/oil transits through Indian Ocean choke points – 40% passes through Straits of Hormuz, 35% through the Strait of Malacca & 8% through Ban el Mandab Strait.
Sri Lanka is at the crossroad of energy, trade, air routes linking Africa, Middle East, South Asia, South East Asia & Australia.
Bay of Bengal is turning into a theatre of war.
Immediately after removing the Rajapakse govt in 2015 the US indicated its role in regime change. John Kerry Secretary of State arrived in May 2015 “Your country sits at the crossroads of Africa, South Asia, and East Asia. The Indian Ocean is the world’s most important commercial highway. And with its strategic location near deep-water ports in India and Myanmar, Sri Lanka could serve as the fulcrum of a modern and dynamic Indo-Pacific region….. The US could play a leadership role in making this happen”.
Lets also look at the US Military Assets in the region. Mainly Diego Garcia
United States Navy
Naval Computer and Telecommunications Station, Far East
Detachment Diego Garcia
Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia
Maritime Pre-positioning Ship Squadron Two
Fleet and Industrial Supply Center
Diego Garcia Detachment
United States Space Force
Space Operations Command (SpOC)
Detachment 2 (GSU)
Space Delta 6
21st Space Operations Squadron
Detachment 1 (GSU)
United States Air Force
Pacific Air Forces (PACAF)
36th Mission Support Group
Detachment 1 (GSU)
Air Mobility Command (AMC)
United States Air Force Expeditionary Center
515th Air Mobility Operations Wing
515th Air Mobility Operations Group
Detachment 1 (GSU)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Support_Facility_Diego_Garcia
Thats a nice set up.
One problem cropped up though
On 23 June 2017, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voted in favour of referring the territorial dispute between Mauritius and the UK to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in order to clarify the legal status of the Chagos Islands archipelago in the Indian Ocean. The motion was approved by a majority vote with 94 voting for and 15 against.
In February 2019, the International Court of Justice in The Hague ruled that the United Kingdom must transfer the islands to Mauritius as they were not legally separated from the latter in 1965. The UK Foreign Office said the ruling is not legally binding.
In May 2019, the United Nations General Assembly affirmed the decision of the International Court of Justice and demanded that the United Kingdom withdraw its colonial administration from the Islands and cooperate with Mauritius to facilitate the resettlement of Mauritian nationals in the archipelago.
In a written statement, the U.S. government said that neither the Americans nor the British have any plans to discontinue use of the military base on Diego Garcia. The statement said in a footnote: "In 2016, there were discussions between the United Kingdom and the United States concerning the continuing importance of the joint base. Neither party gave notice to terminate and the agreement remains in force until 2036".
In June 2020, a Mauritian official offered to allow the United States to retain its military base on the island if Mauritius succeeded in regaining sovereignty over the Chagos archipelago.[44]
There are two transnational political issues which affect Diego Garcia and the BIOT, through the British government.
First, the island state of Mauritius claims the Chagos Archipelago (which is coterminous with the BIOT), including Diego Garcia. A subsidiary issue is the Mauritian opposition to the UK Government's declaration of 1 April 2010 that the BIOT is a marine protected area with fishing and extractive industry (including oil and gas exploration) prohibited.
Second, the issue of compensation and repatriation of the former inhabitants, exiled since 1973, continues in litigation and as of August 2010 had been submitted to the European Court of Human Rights by a group of former residents. Some[who?] groups allege that Diego Garcia and its territorial waters out to 3 nautical miles (6 km) have been restricted from public access without permission of the BIOT Government since 1971.[citation needed]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia
It would be nice to have a backup option and maybe Sri Lanka is it. But Sri Lanka is a sovereign nation and most of the population does not want to be Military Vassal State of the US like Japan, Guam and Philippines ate/were
Here is a more detailed discussion of the topic in 2020
The Lowy Institute(https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/decolonise-diego-garcia-why-america-should-not-fear-mauritius) also mentions “The United States military base on Diego Garcia has a problem: it is housed inside an unlawful jurisdiction, the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT).
According to the African Union, UN General Assembly and a recent advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice, BIOT is a colonial holdover that violates the territorial integrity of Mauritius. Britain refuses to dismantle BIOT out of deference to its ally, the US. This is a mistake. Full decolonisation is in the interest of all sides.
America’s support for British sovereignty over Diego Garcia is based on the assumption that London is a preferable “landlord” to Port Louis. If this was ever true in the past, it is not true today. British control over Diego Garcia and the rest of the Chagos Archipelago is illegal, unpopular, unnecessary, and at odds with the idea of a “rules-based” order in the Indo-Pacific. By contrast, Mauritius holds the keys to a long-term agreement over Diego Garcia that would be consistent with international law and beneficial to America’s broader strategic objectives in the region”.
While the Lowy Institute argues that the future of the base need not be a problem for the US should they negotiate with a willing Mauritius, there is an element of uncertainty over the future of this very vital base that serves US strategic objectives. In this context, it should not be unreasonable to assume that there could be a long term US interest in Sri Lanka on account of any developments in Diego Garcia that are detrimental to US interests.
This writer has argued in previous articles published in the Daily FT that the MCC Agreement taken in conjunction with two other agreements with the USA, although not directly linked to the MCC Agreement, ACSA (already signed) and SOFA (yet to be signed), and the Land Amendment Act (not passed by Parliament as yet as far as the writer knows) are not in the best interests of Sri Lanka.
See Millennium Challenge Grant: USA and the trust deficit, SOFA not so good; who or what will drive the MCC Sri Lanka Compact? , Amended Land (Restrictions on Alienation) Act No. 38 of 2014: Challenge for Gotabaya and Sajith , MCC a spider’s web or an act of unconditional generosity?
It is possible that the US Secretary of State is very keen to secure an agreement on SOFA as well during his visit, besides the MCC Agreement. If he manages to do so, the triumvirate of agreements that could take Sri Lanka well into the strategic hold of the US would be complete. MCC funded road developments reportedly establishing road works between a land corridor from the Western province and the Eastern province, Land banks, selling unlimited parcels of land to non Sri Lankans once land legislation is changed, which Sri Lankan politicians are quite capable of doing, entry of US military personnel into Sri Lanka (under SOFA), are all within the realm of certainty, not just possibility.
http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2020/10/sri-lanka-mcc-agreement-and-mark.html?m=1
Ah ha. So there we have it. The government would not sign off on SOFA and MCC and had to be replaced
Lets explore this some more
In 2015, the US orchestrated a regime-change operation to oust Rajapakse as president and replace him with the pro-US Maithripala Sirisena. [Mission Colombo].The subsequent Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration rapidly and systematically expanded Sri Lanka’s defence ties with the US. The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe regime strengthened defence agreements with Washington and involved the Sri Lankan military force in numerous drills and training exercises with the US and its allied armed forces.
The Access and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) between the US and Sri Lanka, which was first signed in 2011 by Gotabhaya Rajapakse, then defence secretary, was renewed indefinitely under Sirisena. ACSA gives the US military unrestrained access to Sri Lanka’s seaports and airports, while the American navy is currently investigating the feasibility of establishing a US “logistics hub” at the strategic eastern port of Trincomalee.
Further ties are also in the pipeline. These include the proposed renewal of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the US, the hand-over of Colombo Port’s Eastern Terminal to India, and a $US480 million grant agreement with the Millennium Challenge Corporation, an instrument of US foreign policy. Ratification of these agreements and other defence proposals, however, were stalled by conflicts in 2018 that divided the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration.
Gotabhaya Rajapakse was elected president last year by capitalising on the political instability and exploiting deep-seated popular opposition to the International Monetary Fund austerity program implemented by the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe regime.
9-16-20
Late last month, US Defence Secretary Mark T. Esper phoned President Gotabhaya Rajapakse.
While Rajapakse and the Sri Lankan media have kept their mouths shut about the real purpose of the call, the US defence department later released a statement, indicating some of the issues raised.
The conversation, according to the statement, centred on the “shared commitment” of the two countries “to a free and open Indo-Pacific”—a euphemism for Washington’s ongoing campaign against Beijing and unchallenged US military operations in the region. It involved a “review of the defence priorities,” such as “military professionalization, counter-terrorism, and maritime security cooperation.” The defence secretary also called for “continued progress on reconciliation and human rights in Sri Lanka.”
Esper’s phone call was motivated by the fact that Washington and its regional allies are intensifying their military build-up against China, in the Indian Ocean region, and are determined to further expand military relations with, and operations on, the strategically located island.
The call, which was made just a few weeks after the landslide victory of Rajapakse’s party in the parliamentary election, also reflected Washington’s concerns about the new administration and its previous links with China.
Two days after the election, the Wall Street Journal published an article headlined “Pro-China Populists Consolidate Power in Sri Lanka.” It stated that the previous Rajapakse administration had “embraced China,” and become “a showcase for Beijing’s global infrastructure initiative.”
While the US and India had backed Rajapakse’s brother—the former president and current prime minister, Mahinda Rajapakse—in the last phase of Sri Lanka’s bloody civil war in 2009, Washington was hostile to the regime’s economic and military relations with Beijing.
Despite Trumps and Espers Arm Twisting and Biden Administrations efforts SOFA and MCC were dead in the water. Maybe they ran out of time as they want to get this sorted before War with China
http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2020/09/us-sri-lanka-to-increase-military.html?m=1
Then of course, Russia
From this article on 6-12-22
Sri Lanka may be compelled to buy more oil from Russia as the island nation hunts desperately for fuel amid an unprecedented economic crisis, the newly appointed prime minister said.
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said he would first look to other sources, but would be open to buying more crude from Moscow. Western nations largely have cut off energy imports from Russia in line with sanctions over its war on Ukraine.
In a wide-ranging interview with The Associated Press on Saturday, Wickremesinghe also indicated he would be willing to accept more financial help from China, despite his country's mounting debt. And while he acknowledged that Sri Lanka's current predicament is of “its own making,” he said the war in Ukraine is making it even worse — and that dire food shortages could continue until 2024. He said Russia had also offered wheat to Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka has amassed USD 51 billion in foreign debt, but has suspended repayment of nearly USD 7 billion due this year. The crushing debt has left the country with no money for basic imports, which means citizens are struggling to access basic necessities such as food, fuel, medicine — even toilet paper and matches. The shortages have spawned rolling power outages, and people have been forced to wait days for cooking gas and gasoline in lines that stretch for kilometers (miles).
Two weeks ago, the country bought a 90,000-metric-tonne (99,000-tonne) shipment of Russian crude to restart its only refinery, the energy minister told reporters.
“The Ukraine crisis has impacted our ... economic contraction,” he said, adding that he thinks the economy will shrink even further before the country can begin to recoup and rebuild next year.
“I think by the end of the year, you could see the impact in other countries” as well, he said. “There is a global shortage of food. Countries are not exporting food.”
In Sri Lanka, the price of vegetables has jumped threefold while the country's rice cultivation is down by about a third, the prime minister said.
The shortages have affected both the poor and the middle classes, triggering months of protests. Mothers are struggling to get milk to feed their babies, as fears of a looming hunger crisis grow.
So these are Dark Times for Sri Lanka. Its wasnt so long ago when the Sun was out.
In 2018 Sri Lanka PM Ranil Wickremesinghe posted an article on WEF titled:
This is how I will make my country rich by 2025
For some reason WEF has deleted it
Since the country and its people saw a vibrant transition in its political landscape in January 2015, further bolstered by the August 2015 general elections that formed a national unity government – a first ever political experience for the country since its nearly seven decades of independence – Sri Lanka has put in place many of the building blocks needed to reinvigorate its socio-economic and political architecture.
. It is no secret that Asia is the future “economic engine”, and in our endeavours to make Sri Lanka a rich country by 2025, it is our intention to “engage Asia” more steadily, utilizing the strategic access to major growing markets in the region, from India, Pakistan, China, Japan and ROK to the ASEAN.
Developments in Africa are also important in looking to South-South engagements and cooperation. While we undertake this re-orientation, we also continue to strengthen our partnerships with the West – particularly our top export markets of the United States and Europe.
A programme, Enterprise Sri Lanka, has been launched to encourage young and educated entrepreneurs, who will receive loans to start SMEs. The government has also invested in some mega projects, including the Colombo Megapolis constructions – to build a city of the future – and irrigation projects including the Moragahakanda-Kaluganga Dam, to generate green energy and provide water resources for agro-production.
Sri Lanka is mindful of the shortcomings in its macroeconomic policies and institutional capacities that are required to respond to the challenges. We have encouraged strong public-private partnerships, and enabled institutions to become more transparent and efficient. We want them to function with independence, while ensuring transparency through being in compliance with norms set by the parliamentary oversight committees.
The drive to end corruption is strong. We have enacted policy and legislative changes to facilitate doing business with Sri Lanka – it now ranks second in South Asia, according to the World Bank.
We have also played a constructive role in promoting international and regional initiatives in many areas, ranging from the environment and climate change to maritime security and migration. It is our commitment to use the strategic potential of the country, including its vibrant maritime connectivity, for enhancing friendly cooperation with all partners while reaping the economic benefits for all our peoples.
For the first time, Sri Lanka has now been linked to the large ASEAN region by entering into the free trade agreement (FTA) with Singapore. To have struck its first comprehensive trade agreement (including not only goods but services and investment) with a country like Singapore, regarded as one of the most open economies, with high-quality institutions, is an important milestone for Sri Lanka, and a major achievement for the current government.
The Singapore FTA is a strong step towards closer integration with ASEAN, and in fact was signed in the same month that Singapore took over the chairmanship of ASEAN for the year 2018. It signals to ASEAN that Sri Lanka is interested in the region, and signals to the world that it is serious about reform.
So I realize while all of this may or may not be interesting there is no evidence presented of the US being involved in a Color Revolution in 2022
USAID is a well known CIA cutout
US funding projects to realign their agenda in Sri Lanka
$135m for Youth Empowerment grants covering over 100 programs since 2010 (leadership training / advancing ‘rights of marginalized communities’
US Senate Committee sought $43m ($35m economic support fund / $6.8m non-proliferation and anti-terrorism & $500,000 in foreign military financing and $500,000 for training military personnel
US plan was to work with YOUTH, use civil society groups (indirectly to create subversive groups)
$1m for 2 projects – strengthen media / reconciliation identifying youth & women
2016 -$13.7m by USAID to 8 civil society organization to ‘strengthen accountability & good governance) (SDGAP) administered by private US company – Development Alternative Inc (DAI) – a CIA front’ Office of Transition Initiatives(OTI). DAI is set up to destabilize governments. SDGAP project is not subject to Sri Lankan law but to the laws and regulations of the US. SDGAP does not come under the purview of Sri Lanka’s Auditor General. DAI also plans to ‘engage’ with the Sri Lanka Institute of Development Administration (Public Service) Note: SDGAP also implemented in Afghanistan, Colombia, Georgia, Haiti, Indonesia, Iraq, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia and Mongolia. USAID STAIR program in AG’s dept (project claiming to reform public financial management)
2016 – US plan to provide aid to Jayawardenapura University to document historical buildings in Galle Fort. Cheryl Edison arrived in 2017 & was holding free classes for representatives from ICTA – SLASSCOM and held seminars for University students from Jayawardenapura & University of Jaffna.
2017 – Youth Climate Summit funded by US embassy
Feb2017 – Mojo, an American band arrive on a U.S. Embassy sponsored visit – public performances in Jaffna and Colombo; workshops for music students; and master classes for Sri Lankan musicians.
3m aid offered for flood victims – disaster experts from USAIDOFDA and Civil Military Support Element attached to US embassy also involved.
Sri Lanka to receive only US$ 3.38 million for its USAID programmes in 2018, a drop of 92% percent from 2016
March2017 – 2 programs signed “Strengthened Partnership for Democratic Reform & Social Integration” & “Increased & Equitable Growth and Public Financial Management”
23 Aug2019 – The Ministry of Development Strategies and International Trade together with the USAID-SAIL project hosted a Public-Private Dialogue (PPD) on Global Trade for businessman in Kandy District at Hotel Suisse, Kandy.
Other notable CIA fronts include
International Republican Institute (IRI),
National Endowment for Democracy (NED),
National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI),
Freedom House
These organizations transfer US funds to opposition parties and other pro-American groups in countries of strategic interest, using the pretext of ‘promoting democracy’.
The OTI’s charter is to finance civil society groups (NGOs) for use in their subversive activities including regime change in strategically important nations with governments unwilling to succumb to US dictates.
Lets take a look at what the NED has been up to.
First a bit of history of the NED
This private, nongovernmental organization, or NGO, called the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) opened its doors in Washington in 1983. Its name was deliberately chosen to sound noble and philanthropic, like Washington’s National Endowment for the Arts or its National Endowment for the Humanities. The NED was anything but philanthropic or humanitarian, nor was it at all interested in promoting any semblance of what we could consider democracy. Its mission was to doctor systemic US propaganda as a weapon to unseat regimes around the world who were not willing to cooperate with Washington’s overall agenda, whether it be trade globalization that advantaged US multinationals or efforts at simply asserting the national health and safety of its citizens by refusing to permit genetically manipulated organisms, or GMOs.
It was a tool to create what we can call “fake democracy” to advance Washington’s global agenda. Soon the “democracy promotion” of Washington was called by the more descriptive name “color revolutions,” a reference to the slick Madison Avenue color themes that inevitably accompanied the US-backed regime change efforts of the NED and other allied US-backed NGOs.
The endowment grew out of a 1982 speech by President Reagan, which called for a study on an initiative of private organizations to promote democracy overseas.
In February 1983, in a program called Project Democracy, the administration proposed the program be funneled through federal agencies. Congress, seeking a program that was independent and bipartisan, refused to approve the plan.
NED was implicated in the Iran-Contra affair. Oliver L. North called the operation Project Democracy - PRODEM in his computer messages.
The New York Times wrote a front-page story that described North’s operation as the endowment’s ″secret arm.″ Further stories appeared when an organization administering four endowment grants was linked to the Iran-Contra controversy.
″Although the public arm of Project Democracy, now known as the National Endowment for Democracy, openly gave federal money to democratic institutions abroad and received wide bipartisan support, officials said the project’s secret arm took an entirely different direction after Lt. Col. Oliver L. North was appointed to head it about three years ago.″
In 1991, one of the founders of NED, Allen Weinstein, stated that much of NED’s work involves doing what the CIA used to do. Some, in fact, refer to NED as the “second CIA.”
https://countercurrents.org/2022/05/the-national-endowment-for-democracy-a-second-cia/
NED - Sri Lanka 2021:
https://www.ned.org/region/asia/sri-lanka-2021/
SRI LANKA 2021
Published on February 14, 2022
Sri Lanka
National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI)
Supporting Grassroots Youth Leadership and Political Engagement
$325,000
Public Summary: To support Sri Lankan civil society efforts focusing on preserving the democratic space through youth leadership and political engagement. The Institute aims to cultivate youth agency by developing their political engagement skills; provide opportunities for youth to implement those skills through community engagement and advocacy activities; and prepare them to engage with power holders.
Sri Lanka
Centre for Justice and Change
Leadership Development for the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights
$30000
Public Summary: To support the development of community leaders and advocate for the promotion and protection of human rights in eastern Sri Lanka. The organization will undertake a multi-faceted training program in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts aimed at strengthening the capacity of village leaders, including its staff, youth, and women, to raise awareness about the needs of their communities and advocate on their behalf. It will also facilitate the engagement of its network members, many of whom are victims of human rights abuses, in the transitional justice process.
Sri Lanka
The International Working Group on Sri Lanka Ltd.
Seeking Human Rights Protections, Justice, Reform, and Reconciliation
$14460
Public Summary: To support human rights, justice, reform, and reconciliation. The organization will coordinate a series of capacity building, strategy, and advocacy activities in conjunction with Sri Lankan civil society activists to mobilize domestic and international support for the protection and promotion of democratic values and systems.
Sri Lanka
Freedom of Expression
Promoting Freedom of Expression and Access to Independent Journalism
$100000
Public Summary: To generate content and spur debate around democratic governance, human rights, and other critical political issues in Sri Lanka. The organization will maintain an independent media network that researches and publishes articles, interviews, feature pieces, and videos that highlight contemporary political issues for distribution in the country. The organization will provide informative content for a variety of news outlets.
Sri Lanka
Centre for Human Rights and Development
Redressing Victim Communities through Legal Assistance & Advocacy
$70000
Public Summary: To raise awareness about and seek redress for victims of human rights violations. The organization will provide legal aid in cases of human rights violations, including rape, torture, and detention under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), provisions of which are contrary to international human rights standards. In addition, the organization will conduct advocacy and public awareness campaigns supporting a more transparent judicial system and calling for the repeal of the PTA and other policies that infringe on civil liberties and human rights.
Sri Lanka
Janawaboda Kendraya
Civic Engagement for Sustained Collective Action
$41500
Public Summary: To build knowledge and create opportunities for citizens to become more engaged in the political process at the local level. The organization will strengthen and sustain the work of its volunteer structures in ten districts through programming that incorporates leadership development and community training on democracy, good governance, citizens’ rights and religious tolerance, moderated discussions, and street theater in an effort to encourage engagement between citizens and government officials on the political life of their communities.
Sri Lanka
Law and Society Trust
Improving Legal Literacy on Land Rights
$50000
Public Summary: To facilitate coordination between civil society and government authorities for the implementation and reform of existing laws and ordinances on land rights. The organization will manage a nation-wide network of organizations focused on land rights, convene government officials and citizens on land laws and policies, document land disputes, and advocate for new, equitable laws.
Sri Lanka
Centre for Environmental Justice (Guarantee) Limited
Citizen Participation in Monitoring Economic Development
$36000
Public Summary: To promote good governance, adherence to regulations for transparency and accountability, and the rule of law in the development sector and strengthen legal protection for communities adversely affected by severe environmental degradation as a result of development. The center will raise awareness about decision-making in the development sector and equip civil society and relevant government actors with the appropriate tools to engage in the development process.
Sri Lanka
Accountability
Tracking Transnational Economic Crimes
$106556
Public Summary: To document and raise awareness about corruption and economic crimes, including identifying individuals and institutions involved from Sri Lanka as well as those that abet them from abroad, and the damaging consequences for rule of law and democratic values. The organization will focus on the transnational character of these crimes and research which countries are implicated and being used as money laundering hubs.
Sri Lanka
Aham Humanitarian Resource Center
Developing a Forum for Democratic Actors in the Eastern Province
$30000
Public Summary: To foster relationships between elected local government members, local journalists, and CSOs to advance transparency and accountability in the Eastern province of Sri Lanka. The project seeks to establish a forum in which these three groups regularly interact and share information among each other to build trust and recognize their roles in a democratic society. Activities will include regular forum meetings and capacity building trainings to build relationships between and skills for these groups
Sri Lanka
Viluthu
Strengthening Civil Society Networks for Active Political Participation
$60000
Public Summary: To raise awareness of political and social rights, provide a venue for reflection and discussion, and empower participants to take action on issues of concern. The organization will conduct a series of community discussions and learning workshops aimed at engaging youth, including university students, and women’s network leaders on democracy, good governance, and transitional justice issues.
Sri Lanka
Human Rights Advocacy
Gathering and Archiving Women’s Experiences
$60000
Public Summary: To gather and archive the experiences and social issues of women during the war and post-war periods. The organization will systematically gather data and stories about women’s experiences in the north and east, catalog and analyze the information, and distribute it to interested entities. It will provide feedback to individuals and bodies that solicit ideas on the development of an environment friendly to rights and sustainable peace.
Sri Lanka
Verite Research Pvt. Ltd.
Parliamentary Tracking Tool for Accountability and Good Governance
$75000
Public Summary: To promote accountability and good governance through the application of a web-based parliamentary tracking tool. The organization will operate an online platform that documents the biographical information and political activities of members of parliament and conduct outreach to promote its usage by the media and civil society. Using the data, it will contribute, through articles and other media, to the political debate around the development and implementation of governmental policies and legislation
Sri Lanka
Families of the Disappeared
Mobilize Families of the Disappeared in Support of Reconciliation and Justice
$18000
Public Summary: To mobilize families of the “disappeared” in support of reconciliation and transitional justice. The organization will raise awareness about the systematic nature of disappearances, impunity in past cases, and efforts by victims’ families to seek redress. It will highlight human rights violations experienced in the context of the ethnic conflict and leftist insurrections and commemorate the lives of disappeared citizens. It will also seek to build support for transitional justice mechanisms and broader democratic values and reform efforts.
Sri Lanka
Uva Shakthi Foundation
Promoting Citizen Participation and Enhancing Capacity in Estate Tamil Communities
$29500
Public Summary: To promote citizen participation, inter-ethnic solidarity, and local government accountability in estate Tamil communities. The organization will conduct trainings on governance and democracy to raise awareness among Indian Origin Tamils working in the estate sector of their roles and responsibilities as citizens and encourage their full participation in Sri Lankan society.
A lot of grants. All sound harmless and no doubt many are but you see how the web many be spun. These dollars go a lot further than in US
Here is one of the NED sponsored organizations Director is Calling for all party government
Verite Research Executive Nishan de Mel on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ncdemel
Both of the main parties are both pro-China and pro-India but there are other fringe parties an All Party Government would bring in. This might get their foot in the door to power.
Opposition party member M.A. Sumanthiran’s anti-China speech in parliament: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?ref=e...
One fringe party which no doubt would be included is the TNA. The TNA was considered a political proxy of the LTTE (aka Tamil Tigers) which selected some of its candidates even though its leadership maintains it never supported the LTTE and merely negotiated with the LTTE just as the Government did. One might consider them the political offspring of the Tamil Tigers that fought a 26 year civil war that ended in 2009. They were designated as a Terrorist Organization even in the US although evidence suggests they were funded by the CIA. I will include more on that history in another part but for now read this from 1-9-22
India has a legitimate role to play, asserted TNA MP M.A. Sumanthiran in an interview with The Sunday Morning.
Commenting on potential Chinese projects and investment in the North and East, in the backdrop of the high-profile visit to the Northern Province in mid-December 2021 by Chinese Ambassador to Colombo Qi Zhenhong, Sumanthiran firmly stated, “The Chinese are not welcome in the North or the East.”
Outlining his reasons, the TNA MP said that firstly, the TNA’s own political quest was based on human rights and democracy, concepts he charged were alien to the Chinese, and secondly, Sri Lanka’s location in the Indian Ocean as opposed to the South China Sea.
“The TNA’s own political quest is based on human rights and democracy, both concepts that are very alien to the Chinese. In order to win our political rights on the basis of human rights and democratic principles, the influence of the Chinese will hinder progress,” he noted. Furthermore, he stated:
“We are not located in the South China Sea. If we were, we would have recognised the legitimate defence concerns of China. But we are in the Indian Ocean, just a few kilometres away from the Indian coast, and no one can blame us for recognising the legitimate defence concerns of India.”
Stating that China was not a friendly country towards India, Sumanthiran noted that allowing Chinese space in the North and East, which was very close to the Indian coast, “would tantamount to even a hostile act towards India, which we think we should not do”.
Commenting on India’s current role in Sri Lankan affairs, he emphasised that India had a rightful and legitimate role to play with regard to the settlement of the Tamil national question in Sri Lanka.
“In 1983, in the aftermath of the July ’83 violence, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi sent her Minister Narasimha Rao and offered India’s good offices to resolve the national question here. That offer was accepted by the Sri Lankan Government and that remains to date. The Indo-Lanka Accord is an international bilateral agreement between two sovereign nations that must be honoured,” he added.
https://www.themorning.lk/red-light-for-china-green-for-india/
So if the TNA gets its foot in the door and the US has enough influence over the Military could a military coup be in the works? We will have to wait and see
Joint Partnerships with USA & ALLIES
US-SL Military-to-Military Partnership
Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (CPA) with Japan in Oct2015 (Japan is part of QUAD with US)
US-SL ACSA expanded allowing US to get logistics support, supplies & services from Sri Lanka. US army can come to Sri Lanka in any unforeseen situation. Over 50 annexures lists military units that can come to Sri Lanka.
Perhaps they may do so under the auspices of the Doctrine of Necessity
The Speaker of the Parliament in Sri Lanka has stated that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will resign on July 13. There appears to be no way out for him, who is sailing in the high seas for his life. If he resigns, who takes over under the constitutional set-up in Sri Lanka?
Article 40(1) of the Sri Lankan Constitution mandates the election of a new President within a month by the Parliament to fill up a vacancy in the post. However, until a new President is elected, the Prime Minister may officiate as acting President.
The very thought of extra-constitutional remedies is fraught with dangerous consequences.
In case the Prime Minister is unable to become President, as in the present case, since even Prime Minister Wickremsinghe has also resigned, the proviso to Article 40(1)(c) of Sri Lankan Constitution mandates that the Speaker of the Parliament shall act as the President. However, some political commentators think that an answer to the present popular uprising does not lie within the constitutional framework.
In 1953 in Pakistan, when the Governor General Sir Malik Ghulam Muhammad dismissed the Prime Minister Sir Khwaja Nazimuddin and abolished the Constituent Assembly the next year, the Supreme Court of Pakistan, in the case of Federation of Pakistan versus Maulvi Tamizuddin Khan (1955), upheld the extra-constitutional action as constitutional by invoking the doctrine of necessity advocated by medieval English jurist Henry de Bracton.
This doctrine of necessity has found its way into some other nations also. In 2010, the Nigerian Parliament created the Office of Acting President and appointed the then Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan on the ground of necessity to fill the constitutional vacuum in the absence of then incumbent President Umaru Yar’Adua due to the latter’s prolonged hospitalization, in spite of the country’s Constitution not expressly allowing the same.
The British government, invoking the doctrine of necessity, has recently introduced the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill to terminate Northern Ireland Protocol, which it had signed subsequent to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, even though the Bill, if passed, may place the United Kingdom in breach of international law.
https://theleaflet.in/breakdown-of-constitutional-governance-in-sri-lanka-what-is-the-way-ahead/
One last point before I end this beast of a post. There may be another factor at play, if only a minor one. Despite moderate vaccine uptake the debt crisis, inflation and protests seems to have wiped out COVID on the island
Could it be related to Ivermectin?
9-5-21
National Medicines Regulatory Authority (NMRA) had given a waiver of registration to import Ivermectin to prevent thriving black market sales
NMRA’s Chief Executive Officer Dr. Kamal Jayasinghe said that several local agents including George Steuart Health (Pvt) Ltd., ABC Pharma and Emerchemie have been granted this ‘approval of waiver’ to bring in Ivermectin.
When asked for what purpose Ivermectin would be prescribed, NMRA Chairperson Dr. Rasitha Wijewantha told the Sunday Times that it would have to be decided by clinicians after studying scientific evidence.
He said that a waiver of registration (WOR) was granted because there are many drugs including Ivermectin which fall under the category for which no agent usually seeks registration. This is because they are not popular drugs and have a small market share.
“We are in the process of taking a policy decision to encourage registration and import of such drugs by giving small incentives such as reducing the registration fee,” he said.
Deaths started falling shortly thereafter
And no Omicron wave came in 2022
https://www.sundaytimes.lk/210905/news/ivermectin-divides-doctors-while-nmra-gives-waiver-to-import-drug-to-stop-black-market-sales-454583.html