I wasnt going to talk about this anymore, but Scott Ritter wrote an interesting article that i want to review
https://www.rt.com/news/585443-gaza-hospital-strike-truth/
For those content to just write this off as Hamas did it or just feel its ok for Israel to slaughter civilians, or just don’t care either way, but so be it. Nothing that follows will change your mind.
So lets see what Scott says
A clue to what that activity was occurred at 6:59 pm, when numerous rockets were fired from a position south of the hospital, towards Israel, flying in a north-northwest direction. Most of these rockets were launched between 21 seconds and 32 seconds past 6:59pm. These missiles were intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system located just north of Israel’s northern border with Gaza.
There is a three-second gap between the time the last rocket in the salvo was fired and a single rocket took off from the same location. This rocket can be seen rising into the night sky before, five seconds later, it was intercepted by Iron Dome and destroyed.
At 55 seconds past 6:59 pm, a small explosion can be seen a few hundred meters from the Al-Ahli Hospital. Two seconds later, a larger blast erupted on the hospital grounds. This was the attack that took so many innocent lives.
Ok, all of this suggests the rockets were intercepted and fell to the ground. One of which fell and caused a small explosion can be seen a few hundred meters from the Al-Ahli Hospital but was not what hit the parking lot sounding like an incoming missile killing many.
First and foremost, the size of the crater and the physical damage done to the surrounding area eliminate the possibility of an Israeli bomb. But it also tends to eliminate many of the weapons used by PIJ, whose destructive power would have produced a larger crater and more general physical destruction than is evident on the ground.
Where is the evidence they have been using weapons that can cause more damage? We have not seen them do this type of damage to Israel.
A rudimentary analysis of the crater reveals a direction of travel that suggests that the rocket likely originated from a location situated to the south-southwest of the hospital, which, to some extent, supports the Israeli assertion.
Who did this analysis and what imagery was used to do this? He doesn’t say.
However, because the video evidence does not sustain this claim, one cannot jump to the conclusion that the rocket in question came from the PIJ.
Moreover, the size of the crater points to a small warhead possessing less than 50 pounds of high explosives, opening the door to the possibility that a different weapon was used that night – not a PIJ rocket and not an Israeli bomb.
Here he is suggesting Hamas (PIJ) have rockets with more than 50 lbs high explosives. My understanding is most of the rockets they use have payloads not much higher than 20 lbs and with all the rockets they fired on 10/7 their stockpiles must be rather low . It seems doubtful they would waste their higher payloads given the high efficiency of the Iron Dome, unless they launch a massive rocket attack like they did on 10/7 as this can overwhelm the system
During the August 2022 flareup between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group, more than one-fifth of the 1,000 rockets fired toward Israel failed and landed in Gaza, where they caused one-third of the 44 deaths recorded.
200 rockets fell in Gaza, only 15 deaths
Since the beginning of the war, approximately 450 rockets launched toward Israel have fallen within Gaza, endangering the lives of Palestinians in Gaza.
Anyways, what Scott points out next is most important
October 17. At 8:23 pm, Hananya Naftali, a digital content advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, posted the following on X:
“Israeli Air Force struck a Hamas terrorist base inside a hospital in Gaza. A multiple number of terrorists are dead. It’s heartbreaking that Hamas is launching rockets from hospitals, mosques, schools, and using civilians as human shields.”
Naftali deleted this tweet, claiming he incorrectly posted it based on a Reuters news story.
The story in question, however, as originally posted, was entitled “More than 300 killed in Israeli air strike on Gaza Hospital – civil defense official.” The body of the story contained similar information: “More than 300 people were killed in an Israeli air strike on a hospital in Gaza Strip on Tuesday evening, the civil defense chief told Al-Jazeera TV. A health ministry official in Gaza said at least 500 were killed and injured in the air strike.”
Naftali’s tweet, however, contained very specific information that was lacking in the cited Reuters article: What the target was (“a Hamas terrorist base”) and what the results of the attack were (“A multiple number of terrorists are dead.”). It also provided a legal justification behind the attack (“Hamas is…using civilians as human shields.”).
Naftali’s original tweet speaks of a “terrorist base inside a hospital in Gaza.” He also speaks of “human shields” used by Hamas. This implies that the Israelis possessed extremely accurate information about the nature of the target and understood the target was surrounded by a sea of Palestinian civilians taking shelter in the hospital parking lot.
According to Naftali’s deleted tweet, the Israelis confirmed multiple fatalities among the targeted terrorists. This implies an ability to distinguish between the terrorists and civilians, which likewise implies the existence of information accurate enough to pinpoint a cluster of people on the ground and that these people were being visually monitored throughout the attack.
What follows is Scott suggesting another type of weapon Israel might have used
There was another weapon that Israel was making extensive use of in the Gaza conflict – the Mikholit air-to-ground missile, carried on Hermes 450 drones, which were used to conduct so-called “roof knocking” strikes designed to alert residents of buildings designated for destruction to flee. The Mikholit was also used to carry out precise strikes designed to neutralize a target while minimizing collateral damage.
If we overlay the possibility that an Israeli Hermes 450 drone fired a Mikholit air-to-ground missile, which impacted the parking lot of the Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza on the night of October 17, 2023, an alternative scenario of what possibly occurred starts to emerge.
The Mikholit missile is guided to its target by using a laser/electro-optical system (i.e., a nose-mounted camera) or a GPS-homing warhead. The laser/EO warhead has an accuracy of one meter, while the GPS warhead has an accuracy of five meters. Either could have been employed, although given the specificity of the target description, more precision would appear desirable.
The warhead of the Mikholit missile contains around 30 pounds of high explosives and can be either a penetration weapon or a steel ball fragmentation warhead. Likewise, the warhead can be configured to detonate on contact with the ground, have a delay (useful for penetrating bunkers and/or buildings), or use a proximity detonation (for the fragmentation warhead.) Given the existence of both a single crater and evidence of fragmentation impacts on the walls of adjacent buildings, the Israelis could have used a single Mikholit missile configured with a unitary high explosive warhead fused to detonate on impact.
The small crater would seem to suggest a proximity detonator could have been used so the detonation would occur above ground maximizing damage by fragmentation and leaving a smaller crater. But then again, I am not a military expert so will defer to Scott.
Now here is the most interesting part, something I did not discuss in my earlier posts. Why does Hamas not show the evidence that it was an Israeli weapon?. I assumed they might be holding it as a bargaining chip. Scott has another take
... the following narrative can be postulated.
A Hamas cell was compelled to depart from its underground shelter and take up a position in the parking area of the Al-Ahli Hospital. Naftali’s statement regarding Hamas “launching rockets from hospitals” and “using civilians as human shields” likewise implies insight into the operational methodology of those targeted.
This specificity suggests that the Israelis were operating using very precise intelligence, such as the ability to intercept and track the communications associated with a specific Hamas cell or leader.
But why would Hamas suppress evidence that Israel did, in fact, conduct the strike on the hospital? If a Mikholit rocket were, in fact, the culprit, Hamas would undoubtedly have the physical evidence to support such a conclusion. One problem that could be associated with releasing such information is that it changes the script in a manner that could be inconvenient for Hamas. As things currently stand, Hamas is in control of a narrative that conveniently lends itself to the global outrage over Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of Gaza and the slaughter of civilians that this has produced. The outrage over these Israeli actions has coalesced around the Al-Ahli Hospital incident. It has manifested itself in demonstrations around the world, which, as they play out, are to the distinct advantage of Hamas.
If Hamas were to produce evidence that proved that the attack was not a result of indiscriminate Israeli bombing but instead carried out using a Mikholit rocket, the narrative would change dramatically. Far from being a case of wanton slaughter, the attack would rather assume the character of a deliberate Israeli action against a Hamas cell whose existence and activities Hamas would not want to make public – especially if the facts lend themselves to a narrative that has Hamas using the Palestinian civilians packed into the hospital parking lot as human shields.
Operational sensitivities on both sides would, in such a scenario, lead to both Israel and Hamas covering up the truth about what happened at the Al-Ahli Hospital, a perverse collusion with one uniting fact: The willingness of both sides to treat the Palestinian people as tragic pawns in a larger power struggle between two opposing powers that are both criminally indifferent to the resulting human carnage.
This makes sense to me. It doesn’t change anything though. You don’t wipe out an entire wedding party just to take out the groom
Great analysis.
Fine details. But if Hamas/Islamic Jihad had a bomb THAT powerful, the IDF would be soiling their pants. No way THAT bomb was an errant rocket...