Petes Musings (June 9, 2023)
Social Security Savings-Excess Deaths
I have been looking to see how Social Security, Pension Funds and Medicare will save due to the excess deaths among the elderly. No luck. So I took a stab at doing it for social security. I figure the number of recipients should be much less than projected pre-Covid
Yr. recipients. Increase
2014-48,076,000. 1,086,000
2015-49,157,000. 1,081,000
2016-50,297,000. 1,140,000
2017-51,492,000. 1,195,000
2018-52,744,000. 1,252,000
2019-54,139,000. 1,395,000
2020-55,232,000. 1,093,000
2021-56,010,000. 778,000
2022-57,154,000. 1,144,000
Period Avg Annual Increase
2014-2016 avg. 1,102,000
2017-2019. Avg . 1,281,000
2020-2022 avg 1,005,000
276,000 annual shortfall in 2020-2022 recipient grown from 2017-2019 growth
Expected recipient increase in 2020-2022 based on increase from 2014-2016 to 2017-2019= 179,000
Net deficit in recipient 276,000 + 179,000= 455,000 per year
2022 shortage = 455,000 x2 910,000 fewer recipients
Avg 19,000 per year
Savings $17.3 billion in 2022
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html
So over the next decade COVID may have saved as much as 200 billion in social security payments
Maybe I missed something but this seams a reasonable ball park estimate
Now someone do Pensions
Taiwan-Covid
Covid Deaths (4th Omicron Wave)
Complicated Cases (Hospitalizations)
The May Deaths Report came out today
“There were 17,530 deaths in May 2023 which increased 0.70% compared with the same month last year.”
https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/en/2121?sn=23160580
Of course, May was the start of the Omicron Pandemic in Taiwan so an increase from May 2022 is unexpected. May 2021 was also elevated due to the start of the pre-Omicron Pandemic in Taiwan (along with vaccinations).
So lets look at the 2018-2020 May average. 14,085 deaths. Thats 3,445 excess deaths. 24.4% increase.
I can only estimate COVID DEATHS now from the weekly reports. Thats 600. Over 80% of excess deaths are Non-Covid now. They are still pushing boosters
As I reported last month Aprils excess deaths were on the low side (1003) so maybe some of these May deaths were due to delayed reporting from April.
I wont bother mentioning the cumulative pull forward effect due to the excess deaths of over the past year which might suggest excess deaths are even higher (~600 more).
Oh well. Better news on the birth side
There were 11,809 babies born in May 2023 which increased 25.07% compared with the same month last year.
Of course, last May they reported
There were 9,442 babies born in May 2022 which decreased 23.24% compared with the same month last year.
That said, I am becoming more convinced the COVID vaccines are not the major cause behind the drop in births. I think we need to look closer at HPV vaccines and other factors, although I am not saying the COVID vaccines have no effect
Burn Pits-East Palestine-Cancer increase
I haven’t watched MSM regularly for 15 years. While it helps to avoid being brainwashed, sometimes I miss stuff not brought up by those I follow on blogs, Substack and Twitter. Burn Pits was one of them
Burn pit near base
East Palestine
Lot of folks I follow covered East Palestines 1 week nightmare in shock and horror. Imagine living in it for a year non stop, and longer for those doing multiple tours of duty
The Path Act passed in 2022 will cost 300 billion over the next 10 years due to increased cancers from burn pit exposure because some idiot Generals didn’t think Permanent Open Air Burn Pits were a bad idea
Or maybe they knew. The Cancer Industrial Complex is pretty profitable and the DoD is a major funder of cancer treatment research which award lucrative patents. Hope I am wrong on that but COVID has taught us HHS and DoD have fused to a great extent and HHS and Pharma are part of the Military Industrial Everything Complex . Covid showed us what Evil they are capable of
Tucker-Kennedy-Aliens
Tucker fell down that Rabbit Hole in his first Twitter Episode. RFK Jr follows
Bill Clinton and the Rockefeller’s are pleased
In 2014 Clinton told Kimmel that while in office, he examined the Roswell and Area 51 files and confirmed we aren’t hiding any extraterrestrial life there. But refuses to rule out the existence of alien life forms.
“I’m trying to tell you I don’t know, but if were visited someday, I wouldn’t be surprised. I just hope that it is not like ‘Independence Day,’ ” Clinton said.
But he says an alien invasion may not be a terrible thing.
“That may be the only way to unite this incredibly divided world of ours. They are out there — we better think of how all the difference among people on earth would seem small if we felt threatened by a space invader. That is the whole theory of ‘Independence Day.’ “
Wildfires, climate change, Masks
1973 NYC
N95: These respirators filter out at least 95% of airborne particulates and aerosols as small as 300 nm.
The problem is much of the smoke is less that 300 nm (0.3 microns)
D(90% ) , the diameter of 90% of smoke aerosol particles is under 0.3 microns
All you ever wanted to know about Wild Fires, and no, its not about Climate Change
Debt Ceiling Limit
As I wrote last time they need to keep feeding the Military Industrial Everything Complex so no default. All it really did was give Biden an excuse to restart debt repayments on Students Loans and agree to hold the line on non-defense discretionary spending which makes up less than 1/6 of the budget excluding VA spending.
Of course, this can be worked around with emergency spending, so all they need to do is create an Emergency like with COVID and the GWOT and start the game again
The Fake Wrestling match did give me an opportunity to review some of the latest data on our spending and debt
Debt
Foreign Ownership -7.3 b
Fed Reserve -5.2 b
GOVERNMENT -7 b
Us Public-12 b
The only ones who really need to be paid back are the Foreigners. BTW, The Fed has to return the interest on the Treasuries they hold, so just have the Fed buy all the Treasuries if interest rates stay high. Congress passed legislation preventing direct purchases in 1981. Just need to reverse that.
Thomas Edison in a 1921 NYT article was quoted as below.
“It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30,000,000 in bonds and not $30,000,000 in currency. Both are promises to pay; but one promise fattens the usurer, and the other helps the people. If the currency issued by the Government were no good, then the bonds issued would be no good either. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to increase the national wealth, must go into debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious values of gold [fiat money].“
Its even sillier when you realize the banksters create the money out of thin air to loan to themselves or their crony friends the money to buy the Treasuries at a lower rate than the treasuries pay them.
Spending
Non-Defense Discretionary spending (ex Veterans)
In 2021 348 billion non defense discretionary spending less 20 billion in discretionary VA= 328 billion . In 2023 dollars thats 562 billion
This was 767 billion in 2023 less 134 billion in VA = 633 billion
In 2023 dollars in 2023 we budgeted 71 billion more than in 2001. About a total increase of 13% in 2023 dollars. Actually, if inflation were accurately counted we probably spend less than in 2001 when the budget was a surplus (before 9/11) and the debt was expected to be paid down by 2013. Bush and 9/11 ended that
Defense spending however is up 42% from 2001 in 2023 dollars. Thats a 72% increase if including VA payments
So the focus on non-defense discretionary spending seems silly, especially when you consider 2/3 of the budget is mandatory spending and any limits agreed to on the base budget for discretionary spending can be bypassed with emergency spending (just need to create an emergency).
One thing that caught my eye is that spending on Veterans has really skyrocketed since 2001 despite the numbers declining from 26 million to under 19 million
Here is a look
The PATH Act will accelerate these increases (300 billion over the next decade). Not that I begrudge these payments but just saying Militarism sure is an expensive religion
Lost in all the budget talk is revenues. I couldn’t help note that Corporations are getting a free ride
Here are corporate profits
Here are corporate tax payments
Tax payments have tracked well with reported inflation but profits are up 3 times after adjusting for inflation meaning the effective tax rate is only 1/3 what it was in 2001
Corporate profits have went from 5% of GDP to over 10% . Increased government spending has a lot to do with that. Thats why with both parties bought and owned by Corporate donors the government spending most responsible for these increased corporate profits will continue
Major component of Debt Growth
In 21st Century (25 trillion) by my estimate
Interest. 8 trillion
GWOT 5 trillion
Covid. 5 trillion
Global Financial Crisis 500 billion
Corporate Tax Shortfall 5 trillion
23.5 trillion (87%)