Petes Musings
Election Fix, New Omicron, Ukraine-Putins Mess, Taiwan-China, Plummeting Birth Rate, Increasing CFR?
I-2020 Election Fix
II-More Deadly Omicron Variant
III-Putins Ukraine Mess/Taiwan Next?
IV Taiwan Birth Rate Plummets, Deaths Soar
V-Taiwans Increasing COVID CFR?
I-Great Engdahl article here on the 2020 ELection
In the crucial November 2020 US election, CTLC played an unprecedented, highly-sophisticated and clearly highly corrupt role to influence the outcome in favor of Democratic candidates, especially Joe Biden as President.
It was thanks to donations totaling $419 million, nearly half a billion dollars, from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, through their $86 billion tax-exempt foundation.The crucial point was how and where the money was given out.
According to the CTLC website, they opened applications to any local election commission requesting funds, allegedly on a non-partisan basis. The money went direct and state legislatures or government had no control over it, contrary to what is written into the US Constitution.
The grants or free funds were officially “TO SUPPORT THE SAFE ADMINISTRATION OF PUBLIC ELECTIONS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC.”
Here is where it gets interesting.
The states where covid lockdowns and social measures were most severe were precisely the key Democratic-run states asking no voter ID and imposing massive mail-in voting “because of covid restrictions” as noted above, like California, Illinois, Pennsylvania or New York.
CTCL announced grants to support unprecedented mail-in voting, including special drop-boxes in key locations to make voting by mail easier, and vote fraud as well. The grant monies could finance vast networks of drop boxes in key Democrat neighborhoods such as Philadelphia, where Democratic Party corrupt machines were in control.
Money also might be spent in local election districts to “educate” poll watchers or “train” election officials. Oh, how could this go wrong?
Anyways, read the whole thing. Its clear our Democracy is an illusion whose outcome is easily manipulated by our Corporate Overlords with their Tax Free Foundations (not that I am a Trump Fan, No Sir). The real manipulation happens in the primaries, so we only get to choose between Evil and Lesser Evil, both loyal to one group of the ELites or the other
http://www.williamengdahl.com/englishNEO8June2022.php
II-Omicron BA5 has a nasty surprise in store for us, at least for those without durable natural immunity.
I am starting to come around to the idea we are in some kind of live human GOF experiment and that Ralph Baric may be in hiding churning out these variants or something
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1535354182005317635.html
III-UKRAINE/Taiwan
I haven’t talked much about Ukraine of late. Its really hard to see through the propaganda on both sides.
Russias performance has been underwhelming. Its probably giving NATO some ideas they would best be without.
As I mentioned awhile back, it was looking to me like Putin was going to try to grab the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine from Belarus down south along the Dnepier River and then West to Moldova. This would leave Ukraine landlocked with its Western Rump which is where most of the anti-Russian Nationalists are from.
This gives Russia a buffer along its Western border with no direct border with the nationalist controlled West Ukraine, and total control of the Black Sea border. Russia would be more secure even if Nato moved into West Ukraine and Sweden/Finland joined NATO.
However, it appears Russia is not going to take the North East Ukraine or Kiev. This leaves them with a long border with Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine would then no doubt redeploy much of its military East of the Dnepier River along Russias border instead of West of the Donbas where they have been the last 8 years
This is where Russia stands
This is likely what their objective seems to be
Do they accomplish that and go for more? No idea. Seems unlikely they can go for more than that at this point without a full mobilization of their military
Furthermore, by not doing a better job of destroying incoming Arm Shipments from reaching Ukrainian forces on the front the Donbas civilians are taking heavy casualties of late. MSM no doubt likely is reporting these as Russian attacks.
But Russell Bentley a Texan in Donetsk says otherwise
From this they still have a lot of work to do in the Donbas
This is looking to me like a disaster for Russia.
I am not a big Putin fan, and even less so a Zelensky/Kolomoisky/Azov fan. Unfortunately Putonphiles like Vanessa Beeley (or her admin at Telegram) block you for questioning the Russian narrative
Putin certainly had legitimate security concerns to justify invading Ukraine. But was that his only reason?
As Edward Slavsquat describes Russia COVID measures Putin took quite a hit in the popularity department. The war seems to have turned that around
Before
After
Plus Russia and some of Putins favorite Oligarchs are all in on Klaus Schwabs Great Reset and building Technocratic Bio-Security Digital Gulag. This War does wonders for the WEF Agenda by reducing living standards and consumption (carbon) in the West and food shortages should accelerate the depopulation agenda, especially in Africa which mostly avoided COVID and the Death Vax.
Anyways, I am not a Putin mind reader, but he has made the Military Industrial Complex in both Russia and the West very happy. It must have frustrated them seeing all those trillions going into others pockets. Now they get some candy too.
Its looking like a long War, more like Afghanistan than a quick and dirty Gulf War. The Military Industrial Complex will be pleased. Only thing making them happier would be for Taiwan to accept being the Ukraine of the Pacific. Plans are already being made for that
NBC (CNAS) Just Simulated A War With China: Here's What Happened
In this entirely unrealistic simulation in the first round, the "red team" (representing China) invaded Taiwan, first attacking its outlying islands and following that up with an air and missile strike on Taiwan and on US bases in Japan, Guam and the northern Marianas.
What follows is an air and sea battle between China and Taiwan with escalation and hardly any discussion of the effects on Taiwan itself
Solutions suggested to avoid such an event include an Asian NATO, starting with bilateral trade agreements (Taiwan in negotiation with US now)
If they don’t think an Asian NATO including Taiwan crosses Chinese Red Line they are nuts. We may not agree with someones Red Lines but if you want to avoid War you don’t cross them.
Out policy of Strategic ambiguity is intended to ensure Taiwan and China could presume to count on US involvement and the uncertainty would keep both in line.
The President does not currently have authority to use the military against China over a Taiwan invasion w/o Congressional approval.
As such a first strike against US would not be on the table for China given it would be an Act of War and guarantee an immediate US military response. For them it would make more sense to move on Taiwan first , if that was what they chose to do, and deal with any belated response later (more on this below).
Rep Gallagher suggested we must pre-authorize the President to act in defense of Taiwan . This would make it more likely China would exercise a first strike against US realizing the US would be able to and would be likely respond quickly with force
In the exercise China attacked US assets first because they were convinced we would intervene (we apparently tipped our hand and lost strategic ambiguity) .
It seems to me all these table top exercises to prevent Wars and Pandemics are not to stop them, but how to best start them and execute them
Would China use Military Force on Taiwan?
Taiwans value to China lies in its economy, people and TSMC chips. Just a big Rock otherwise. No oil, gas lithium or other resources like Ukraine. The US did not invade in WWII because it would be too difficult to land troops there without enormous losses. China would take enormous casualties (many tens of thousands if not more) by trying to occupy Taiwan on land quickly and would then need to fight a guerrilla war for years as there are likely many fortified caves in these mountains.
They no doubt know neither the US or Taiwan will allow China to take Taiwan without TSMC being reduced to rubble. And the economy would be destroyed leaving behind millions of elderly survivors to take care of (not many kids here due to low fertility rates)
Now we may not like that China has these Red Lines but they do. An economic and military powerhouse a stones throw away from Taiwan with 1.2 billion people is not easily ignored.
So my assessment, is actual China military aggression beyond “grey zone” tactics is low probability, at least without provocation by crossing Red Lines like the US did in Ukraine.
Chinas “grey zone” tactics include diplomatic isolation, systematic cyber and cognitive warfare campaign including espionage, misinformation, and subversive efforts. Troublesome for sure, and perhaps effective over a long term. They are playing a long game, and don’t appear to need to resort to desperate measures in the absence of provocation.
The US has shown its willingness to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. No doubt they will do the same to China by fighting to the last Taiwanese (and an old expat). Ask Ukrainians how helpful Americans wearing blue and yellow help against artillery and rockets. Not much.
Besides, unlike Ukraine Taiwan is heavily dependent on imports on food and energy, and has a much higher population density, so its best not to poke the bear.
Thats just my humble opinion.
IV Taiwan Birth Rate Plummets, Deaths Soar
Taiwan-Change compared to 2018-2020
Births-May
2022- 9,042-35.8%
2021-12,300-12.8%
2018-2020 avg 14, 100
Just as a check, looking at the previous 3 months
11,222 babies born in Apr 2022 which decreased 8.50% compared with the same month last year.
12,788 babies born in Mar 2022 which decreased 7.46% compared with the same month last year.
9,617 babies born in Feb 2022 which decreased 16.35% compared with the same month last year (the Lunar New Year may have skewed this months numbers)
I wont try and explain the rather drastic drop in births but if I was an investor I would get out of stocks dependent on lots of children (eg - education)
Deaths-May
2022-17,409 +23.5% (+3324 excess)
2287 COVID deaths, ~1000 unexplained
2021-15,108. +7.2% (+1023 excess)
124 COVID deaths~900 unexplained
2018-2020 avg 14,085
Not all May deaths have been reported so unexplained deaths expected to drop a bit
V-Taiwan CFR
2022- COVID Deaths
Reported through June 11
(Any math errors are my own)
Jan 1-April 30 -93.4k cases
94 deaths
Jan 1-April 30 CFR 0.1%
May 1-May 7 -200k cases
239 deaths (CFR 0.12%)
May 8-14.-383K cases
512 deaths (CFR 0.13%)
May 1-May 14-583K cases
751 deaths (CFR -0.13%)
May 15-May 31 -1324k cases
1536 deaths (CFR -0.12%)
Total deaths in this period expected to approach 2000
Est CFR 0.15%
There seems to be a trend of increasing CFR for some reason. Data from Jan 1-May 14 is not expected to change much.
Unfortunately the “committee “ that reviews deaths before they are reported takes anywhere from 3- 14+ days (median about 7-8) to report and while most patients die within 5 days of being a confirmed case some last longer.