Pelosi Pokes the China Bear
Will this time be different?
Update-Pelosi over Taiwan
Most people on Taiwan including myself have reacted to previous China-US crisis over Taiwan with a big yawn and mostly ignore it. Maybe because there have been so many of them without anything much happening. Also, they cant imagine China doing anything so stupid as attacking Taiwan and damaging their economy.
Why is this time different (maybe)
Administration officials also leaked to the media that U.S. military personnel are in Taiwan training its forces.
President Xi Jinping will be seeking an unprecedented third term as head of the Chinese Communist Party this fall. He likely fears that high-level, public U.S. support for Taiwan would make him look weak and not in control of critical relationships and undermine his standing.
More important, Beijing’s reaction reveals its growing comfort with the prospect of a crisis over Taiwan. As Xi faces economic headwinds at home and growing resentment over his strict zero-COVID policy, he may have concluded that a Taiwan crisis could rally the public and shore up his popularity. Xi may also have decided that international support for Taiwan is growing too strong, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The last Taiwan Strait crisis occurred more than a quarter century ago. The instigating event was the 1995 address Lee gave at his alma mater, Cornell University, on what he dubbed “Taiwan’s democratization experience.” The fact that the Taiwanese president was granted a visa to visit the United States after Secretary of State Warren Christopher assured his Chinese counterpart that Lee would not be allowed to enter the country enraged Beijing. In retaliation, the Chinese military conducted missile tests and exercises in the Taiwan Strait. This prompted Secretary of Defense William Perry to announce that the United States would dispatch two aircraft carrier strike groups to the area, demonstrating that the United States was prepared to intervene to repel a Chinese invasion.
In addition to its military advantage, China has significantly more leverage over Taiwan’s economy. At the time of the 1995–96 crisis, Taiwan’s exports to the mainland accounted for one-third of one percent of its total exports; today, that figure is 30 percent. China could choose to cut off its market to many Taiwanese goods, a move that would be difficult for Taiwan—or the United States—to counter.
During previous crises, China had an overriding interest in preserving a constructive relationship with the United States. This was true during the 1995–96 crisis, the standoff sparked by the accidental U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and an incident in 2001, when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft. In all these cases, Chinese leaders ultimately sought a way to de-escalate tensions. Now, however, with U.S.-Chinese relations in a free fall, Xi may believe there is little left to preserve.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-survive-next-taiwan-strait-crisis
I would add to this
Most of the world’s cutting-edge chips are produced by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. The CCP has many ideological and strategic reasons to consider invading Taiwan; its quest for control of the market for chips represents an economic incentive to do so. Of course, a war could seriously damage Taiwan’s foundries, which, in any case, would struggle to maintain production without Western chip designs and equipment. And such a shock to chip supplies would affect millions of downstream jobs in China, not just those in other large economies. Even so, Beijing might believe that China could recover from a crisis more quickly than the United States. That is precisely the lesson Beijing drew from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has taken a far greater toll on China’s adversaries than on China itself. To be sure, Beijing would not take the fateful step of attacking Taiwan and risking war with the United States based on semiconductor inventories alone. The point is that Chinese leaders may not view the disruption of semiconductor supply chains as an inhibitor to launching a war.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2021-08-23/beijings-american-hustle
The author of this is Mathew Pottinger, COVID War Hawk, Trumps Deputy National Security Advisor, who played a singularly outsized role in shaping America’s disastrous response as well as arranging the hiring of Deborah Birx as White House COVID Response Coordinator (his wife is a former CDC Virologist who worked with Deborah Birx on HIV tests)
The head of Taiwanese tech giant TSMC warned an invasion of the island would render his factory "not operable" as tensions rise ahead of a potential visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
https://www.barrons.com/news/taiwan-chip-giant-head-warns-war-would-devastate-global-supply-01659346206
The upcoming Pelosi trip has me looking at some of events and delegations to Taiwan in a new light. I present this without much commentary for reference
However, I will point out China like Russia may think of War with US as being inevitable. Russias Red Line was Ukraine joining NATO. However, it was clear that over the last 8 years that Ukraine was becoming a defacto NATO state.
Chinas Red Line is Taiwan declaration of Independence. We can disagree that it should be a Red Line but Bears like China and Russia and the US don’t listen. Likewise, looking at all the delegations heading to Taiwan over the last couple of years it is easy to see China looking at this as a defacto declaration of Taiwan Independence.
Furthermore, looking at the situation in the US with a seemingly Demented President with little support, and an Economy in a Mess with supply disruptions and inflation, and the US MIC stretched in providing Ukraine with weapons and assistance, not to mention a weakened industrial base after 30 years of deindustrialization, and a population that is divided and weakened from mRNA jabs, who can blame Xi for thinking this might be a good time to act (I certainly hope not and I think he might underestimate our ability to unite against an external enemy, although we probably wont be able to save Taiwan).
I will point out that Eisenhower in his famous 1961 speech calling out the Military Industrial Complex initially drafted the speech calling it the Military Industrial Congressional Complex since its Congress that authorizes the spending
From Soldiers of Reason-RAND Corporation by Alex Abella
It seems clear that like with COVID there are elements in the MICC looking to escalate things with China for profit and other reasons (WEF agenda). In case you don’t know, Big Pharma and HHS became part of the MICC following the Anthrax Attacks and passing of the Project Bioshield Act of 2004 and Operation Warp Speed was a Military Operation
Anyways, here is the timeline
January 2, 2020
Taiwan’s top general has been confirmed dead after a helicopter made an emergency landing in northern Taiwan, the defence ministry has said, just days before the island goes to polls to elect a new president.
Chief of general staff General Shen Yi-ming and seven other people were killed after the UH-60M Black Hawk helicopter crashed in mountains near Taipei on Thursday, according to defence ministry spokesman Shih Shun-wen.
Shen, 62, and several top military officials were on a routine mission to visit soldiers in the northeast Yilan county before the lunar new year later this month.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/2/taiwan-top-general-killed-in-helicopter-crash
The US-Taiwan Business Council (USTBC) and the U.S. defense community today mourn the loss of eight Taiwan defense officials killed in a helicopter crash in the mountains of New Taipei City on the morning of January 2, 2020. The list of casualties include Taiwan’s top military official, Chief of the General Staff General Shen Yi-ming, who was one of nine military officials aboard along with three crew members and a reporter from the Military News Agency. The UH-60M Black Hawk helicopter was en route from Taipei to a base in Yilan as part of a pre-Lunar New Year visit with troops when it crashed.
In response, Taiwan has grounded its 52 Black Hawk helicopters for inspection of fuselage structure, radar, control, and other systems, including the 14 Black Hawks fielded by the Taiwan Air Force, 30 by the Taiwan Army, and 8 by the National Airborne Service Corps. The Ministry of National Defense has said that a special task force will be formed to investigate the cause of the crash.
In addition, all three candidates in Taiwan’s January 11, 2020 presidential election have announced that they will temporarily suspend their campaigns to observe a period of mourning.
[Note- no doubt there were suspicions of Chinese involvement . In any event, Tsai won a 2nd term in a landslide]
https://www.ustaiwandefense.com/tags/shen-yi-ming/
August 9,2020
U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar made a historic visit to Taiwan. Azar became the highest-ranking American cabinet official to travel to the island since 1979, which was when the United States dropped official diplomatic recognition of Taiwan in favor of communist China.
Indeed, Azar's visit should be celebrated by Taipei and Washington as it presents the latest evidence that bilateral relations are significantly strengthening—in this case, to better understand and handle the coronavirus pandemic.
However, Taiwan should also view the United States' moves to bolster bilateral ties with some measure of trepidation. Simply put, the United States' objectives in taking such unprecedented steps with Taiwan over the past few years remain unclear.
On the one hand, Taiwan and the United States are natural partners. Both are vibrant democracies with numerous overlapping political, economic, and security interests. From this perspective, it makes sense to enhance U.S.-Taiwan relations and to integrate Taiwan into the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy (PDF) with “like-minded” nations.
On the other hand, Washington is embroiled in an increasingly ferocious great-power competition with Beijing, raising concerns that the United States may actually be strengthening ties with Taiwan primarily to frustrate and thwart China.
If the United States were to make increasingly provocative moves, such as one day sending the secretary of state or defense chief, forging a formal military alliance with Taiwan, or even unilaterally recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation, then this could lead to armed conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan—certainly an undesirable outcome for Taipei.
Indeed, Azar's visit prompted Beijing to dispatch fighter jets across the center line of the Taiwan Strait. In another very worrisome scenario, Washington might eventually use Taipei as a pawn to achieve victory in other areas of the U.S.-China relationship.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/08/secretary-azars-taiwan-visit-should-be-celebrated-for.html
On October 5 and 6, 2020, the US-Taiwan Business Council welcomed the bilateral defense community at the 2020 Virtual US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference.
We were disappointed that the attendees were unable to gather in person this year, as the face-to-face interactions at the annual conference are so important. However, we were delighted to have a robust lineup of speakers for the virtual event. Speakers came from the U.S. and Taiwan governments, as well as from defense industry and academia. The panelists held vibrant and engaging discussions on U.S. defense cooperation with Taiwan, the defense procurement process, and Taiwan’s defense and national security needs.
Released Speeches
https://www.us-taiwan.org/events/2020-us-taiwan-defense-industry-conference/
4-14-21
Former Senator Chris Dodd, and former Deputy Secretaries of State Richard Armitage and James Steinberg arrived in Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon.
https://m.dw.com/en/us-sends-unofficial-delegation-to-taiwan-angering-china/a-57197677
[Note-One month later Taiwan was locked down with its first major COVID epidemic after almost 18 months of no community spread]
Nov 11, 2021-A delegation of US lawmakers visiting Taiwan has signaled the “strategic clarity” of Washington’s policy toward Taiwan, and they might visit Japan or South Korea next to promote the US’ Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a military affairs expert said yesterday.
A US Navy C-40A aircraft, reportedly carrying six US lawmakers, on Tuesday afternoon departed from Manila and landed at Taipei International Airport (Songshan airport) later in the day.
Cornyn is one of the US senators who is sponsoring a draft Taiwan Deterrence Act introduced at the US Senate last week.
A delegation of four U.S. senators and two members of the House of Representatives was in Taiwan last week, from November 9 to November 11. The visit took place a few days before a virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on what was Monday night in the U.S. and Tuesday morning in Asia.
it’s noteworthy that the U.S. delegation’s visit was conducted in a low-key manner. Although Taiwanese media quickly found out about the visit, the names of the visiting politicians were not initially confirmed by the Tsai administration, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs only issued its formal press release about the visit on November 15. This was several days after the delegation had already left. The participants in the visit were Senators John Cornyn (R-TX), Mike Crapo (R-ID), Mike Lee, (R-UT), and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), and Representatives Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Jake Ellzey (R-TX).
https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/us-lawmakers-visit-taiwan-amid-flurry-of-diplomatic-activity/
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/11/11/2003767683
Nov 26, 2021
A group of US lawmakers arrived in Taiwan Thursday, the second such delegation this month and a fresh sign of American support just days after President Joe Biden invited Taipei to a democracy summit.
The US delegation touched down overnight after celebrating Thanksgiving with US troops in South Korea.
It is led by by Mark Takano, chairman of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, and includes Colin Allred and Sara Jacobs, as well as Slotkin and Mace.
Xavier Chang, a spokesman for Taiwan President’s Tsai Ing-wen, said the visit demonstrated the “firm Taiwan-US friendship” and “solid bipartisan support for deepening ties” in Congress.
The American Institute in Taiwan, Washington’s de facto embassy, said the two-day visit would involve “US-Taiwan relations, regional security, and other significant issues of mutual interest”.
When news of our trip broke yesterday, my office received a blunt message from the Chinese Embassy, telling me to call off the trip,” Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, one of the delegates, wrote on Twitter.
Elissa Blair Slotkin (born July 10, 1976) is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative from Michigan's 8th congressional district since 2019.[1] A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst and Department of Defense official.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elissa_Slotkin
https://hongkongfp.com/2021/11/26/second-us-delegation-visits-taiwan-this-month/
[Note-On 11/29 Taiwan announced resumed vaccination of 12-17 year old kids following a pause due to myocarditis concerns, and approval of the adult booster on January. First cases of Omicron detected on 12/11
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-confirms-first-case-omicron-variant-2021-12-11/]
Mullen, a retired Navy admiral who served as the top U.S. military officer under former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, will be accompanied by Meghan O'Sullivan, a former deputy national security advisor under Bush, and Michele Flournoy, a former undersecretary of defense under Obama, according to the official,
Two former National Security Council senior directors for Asia, Mike Green and Evan Medeiros, will also make the trip, which is intended to "demonstrate our continued robust support for Taiwan," the official told Reuters.
The delegation is expected to arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday afternoon and stay until Wednesday evening, during which time they plan to meet Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng and other senior officials.
March 2-22
Taiwan’s government is juggling competing high-profile visits from the US in a busy week of diplomacy as Washington sends a delegation to democratically run Taipei just before a trip by former secretary of state (and CIA Director) Michael Pompeo.
President Tsai Ing-wen met a bipartisan group including former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen and ex-undersecretary of defense for policy Michèle Flournoy in the Presidential Office on Wednesday, a US display of support amid growing pressure from an increasingly assertive China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/02/Pompeo-heads-to-Taiwan-as-rival-US-delegations-display-support-amid-China-threat
4-14-22
Lindsey Graham visit
TAIPEI, Taiwan — A delegation of six U.S. lawmakers led by Republican Lindsey Graham from South Carolina arrived in Taiwan on Thursday for a two-day visit that has already been denounced by China.
The U.S. lawmakers are to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and the island’s defense minister. The visit is “again a demonstration of the U.S.’s ‘rock solid’ support and commitment to Taiwan” amid a “severe” situation in Ukraine, the island’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.
Graham is joined by Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina, Sen. Robert Portman of Ohio, Sen. Benjamin Sasse of Nebraska, and Representative Ronny Jackson of Texas.
The visit follows an announcement last week that U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi would visit Taiwan. However, Pelosi’s trip was postponed after she tested positive for COVID-19.
https://www.wspa.com/news/world-news/lindsey-graham-arrives-in-taiwan-draws-criticism-from-china/
Covid cases
By May COVID DEATHS Skyrocketed despite vaccination rates approaching 90% in the adult population and over 60% boosted
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-lawmakers-taiwan-china-visit-warning-lindsey-graham
7-7-22
Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) will visit Taiwan from July 7-9, 2022, as part of a larger visit to the Indo-Pacific region. The Senator will meet with senior Taiwan leaders to discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade and investment, global supply chains, and other significant issues of mutual interest.
https://www.ait.org.tw/senator-scott-visit-to-taiwan/
7-27-22
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected the timing and strategy of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) plan to take Taiwan by force, former US secretary of defense Jim Mattis told a forum in Taipei yesterday, where experts from around the world stressed the importance of like-minded democracies standing together in the face of rising authoritarianism.
Mattis and other security experts were invited to speak either in-person or virtually at the Ketagalan Forum to discuss the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Indo-Pacific region.
Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke at length about teamwork and partnership before the invasion, but Xi is shocked at what has happened since, including the Russian military’s “pathetic” performance, Mattis said.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2022/07/27/2003782492
On Thursday 7/28, a rare high-level visit from Japanese lawmakers and two former ministers of defense met with the Taiwanese president discussing regional security.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/is-a-china-crisis-now-inevitable/
8-2-22
Pelosi Time. Stay tuned.
For more on Taiwan-China-US see this