Non-Covid Excess Deaths-Update
This is a simpler and briefer version of my US Excess Death Post from August 21, but this one includes July’s data as well.
At the same time Ethical Skeptic had released his own study which is much more professional and detailed.
https://theethicalskeptic.com/2022/08/20/houston-we-have-a-problem-part-1-of-3/
For some reason he comes out with more non-Covid Excess Deaths than I. He finds 349,000 non-COVID excess deaths from Week 14 of 2021 while I have 247,000 from Jan 1, 2021.
One reason may be he uses as baseline of 2014-2019 while I use what CDC is using (2017-2019). Although more years is better with a stable population the US is aging rapidly, as such a 5 year average may have lower average death than the most recent 3 years and inflate Excess Deaths.
Also, January-March 2021 we actually had negative non-Covid deaths (6000) so excluding them gives a higher number. I suspect they may have been overzealous in ruling deaths as COVID to cover for the Vaccine deaths which there certainly would have been many given the elderly were targeted first.
Regardless, either number (247k or 349k) is high enough to warrant concern.
Dennis Rancourt also has it covered and does a good job with age stratification but at 168 pages its a bit much for many. Big drawback is he denies there is any such thing as a respiratory disease causing excess deaths which I don’t agree with, but he has a lot of data in there.
So lets get on with it
Non -Covid Death Data (see my previous post for more detail)
2020. 2021. 2022
Jan. 0 (-700). 16,200
Feb. 9,400. (-800). 4,300
Mar. 10,500. (-4,500). (-300)
April. 23,200. 4,500. 5,500
May. 10,300. 10,600. 13,400
June. 10,800. 14,300. 13,000
July. 21,000. 20,400. 10,100+
Aug. 21,900. 30,100
Sep. 16,300. 27,400
Oct. 14,800. 40,700
Nov. 24,800. 21,700
Dec. 14,000. 18,400
Total. 177,000. 182,200. -
Jan-Jul. 85,200. 40,700. 62,200
Here is the Cumulative Graph
Notice how it short of flattened out January through March, the 2nd booster got approved in April and then the slope increases
Here is graph showing COVID with non-Covid
There is obviously far more COVID than NON-Covid deaths. However, its important to remember that all deaths with a positive PCR Test was counted as a COVID death, even if they died of something else. A conservative estimate might be that 30% of COVID deaths died of something else. This would add about 150k to the 250 non-Covid Deaths for a total of 400 K from 1/1/21-7/31/22
Notice how during the time COVID bottoms out in 2021 how non-Covid excess deaths began to climb? Remember, there were no Lockdowns then and the economy was bouncing back. What else could explain this?
And see how non-Covid deaths start climbing again shortly after the 2nd booster is authorized in April 2021?
Of course the Diehard supporters will say Long Covid and/or Climate Change, or a carryover from 2020 Lockdown stress, bad diets and skipped Doctors appointments
If you look closely COVID started climbing a few weeks after the 2nd booster was being delivered in April 2022. Could that be waning?
September 2021 was the month the EUA was issued for the 1st booster (people had already started getting them in August when COVID deaths (due to primary series waning) and non-COVID deaths started climbing . After September COVID deaths began to taper down before bouncing back up in December (likely due to waning of the 1st booster and/or OAS)
I don’t see how HHS can explain ignoring 250-400k non-Covid Deaths. If they weren’t ignoring it they would throw a ton of money into investigating it. Of course, we couldn’t put the Foxes in charge of investigating the break-in and slaughter of chickens in the Hen House so I really don’t care if HHS investigates this. Its time to convene Grand Jury Investigations in each state (or at least as many states as possible).
And here is some age stratified data
https://www.soa.org/4a368a/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2022/group-life-covid-19-mortality-03-2022-report.pdf