More Fear Porn from NYT
In the bleakest of several scenarios of what the end of China’s “zero Covid” policy might mean, nearly a million people could die during the early months of reopening, Hong Kong researchers reported this month in a study partly funded by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, though the study does not provide an exact time period.
An American group estimated as many as half a million deaths by April and another million by the end of 2023 if China rejects social-distancing mandates.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/health/china-covid-outbreak-predictions.html
People have a hard time putting large numbers into context. First its important to understand Chinas has 1.2 billion people. 1 million deaths is 0.1% of the population, and the vast majority would be elderly who do not work or produce anything
Lets assume China experienced about the same death rate as US (pre-Covid) . Its probably higher but lets go with that. So it would have about 1 million deaths each month from natural causes, and closer to 1.2 million deaths each month during winter months.
If China were to experience an additional 1 million COVID Deaths over the next 4 months it would have an excess death rate of 22%. For the entire year of 2021 the US experience a 22% Excess Death Rate per CDC. No Lockdowns in 2021 (19% Excess Deaths in 2020)
US had 13 months starting from April 2020 that exceeded an Excess Death Rate of 22%
Lets look at Taiwan Excess Deaths
Excess deaths (vs 2016-2020 avg)
2022-Wave 2. Excess deaths%
May. 3,328. 24%
June. 7,406. 54%
July. 3,764. 26%
Aug. 3,586. 25%
Sep. 3,130. 23%
Oct. 2,859. 20%
Nov. 3,954 29%
From May through November Taiwan experienced
28,027 Excess Deaths (vs 2016-2020 avg)
14,327 Non-COVID Deaths
14,000 Covid Deaths
Adjusted to China Population Size (x 58)
1,642,966 Excess Deaths
812 ,000 COVID Deaths
830,966 Non-Covid Excess Deaths
If China does experience what they predict, its tough for them but not a disaster. Its not like lockdowns would stop that given their population density and plumbing in some areas. Frankly, for all we know they already experienced this but we simply don’t have data to know. I think if we never tested for COVID and treated it like any other respiratory infection nobody would know we had a Pandemic
This guy agrees.
Prof. Udi Qimron, the Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology at Tel Aviv University.
"'If we had not been told that there was an epidemic in the country, you would not have known there was such an epidemic and you would not have done anything about it”
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/285341
Lockdowns, Covid Treatment Protocols (denying high dose steroids , IVM and antibiotics and the overuse of Remdesivir and Ventilators) and the COVID Jabs are the cause of most of these Excess Deaths attributed to the Pandemic.
We don’t know for sure what Chinas COVID TREATMENT protocols are, but I bet hardly anyone in the CCP succumbs to COVID much like most of our Politicians and active Billionaire CEO’s have not succumbed to COVID or the Jab