Interesting paper. A feeble attempt to white wash Excess Deaths and promote the vaccine
One of the authors is the guy who thinks we should all die by 75
https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-explains-death-75/story?id=25657205
Interestingly, Non-Covid Excess Deaths are lower in the most heavily locked down states within the US and highest in the states with the less restrictive lockdowns (least vaccinated). Seems to eliminate Lockdowns as a reason for Excess Deaths in 2021/2022
All Cause Mortality = ACM
Select Countries from Study-Non-Covid Excess Deaths calculated by subtracting COVID from ACM.
EXCESS Deaths (over 45 wks)
COVID ACM. Non covid
PER100k
Japan. 10.4. ???? ?????
Australia 19.2. 38.1. 18.9
Sweden. 37.6. 32.4. -5.2
France. 42.2. 37.2. -5.0
Israel. 44.3. 57.4 13.1
Germany. 52.3. 63.1. 10.8
UK. 59. 49. -10.0
US. 111.6. 145.5. 33.9
MV. 74.7. 65.1. -9.6
LV. 146. 193.3. 47.3
MV -10 most vaccinated states
LV- 10 least vaccinated states
Not included in study
*Taiwan 29. 83. 54
*Taiwan has almost 90% full vaccination rate
*California 36. 107. 71
*August 2022 extrapolated out to 45 weeks
(See below)
Different period but between May 1 , 2021 and October 31, 2022 Taiwan experienced Excess ACM of 145/100k , Covid deaths 50/100k and non-Covid Excess Death at 95/100K. Adjusting this for the same number of weeks (45) in the paper 83 /100k Excess ACM, 29/100 k COVID, and 54 /100k Non-COVID Excess
Data extracted from here
Notice the negative Non-Covid Excess Deaths in the study. This means fewer people were dying of other causes. You would think they would want to call attention to this but it brings up a tough question. Why is this happening?. Could these states be getting different vaccines than those less vaxxed (red and poor) states? Plus, the negative numbers are due to Expected Deaths based on 2015-2019 average is too high due to the enormous about of Excess Deaths in 2020 and first half of 2021. Many of those deaths were pulled forward. Late 2021 and 2022 should have fewer deaths than 2015-2019 avg
I actually talked about the Negative Non-Covid Excess Deaths here
Then there is CA, which in recent months has experienced 119% of Expected Deaths. This is a pretty highly vaccinated state with 74.6% fully vaccinated
Since these are CDC provisional data meaning there is a bit of a lag lets look at August which is mostly 100% now
Doing a bit of math to put it into numbers we can use to compare with the papers data
COVID -3.4/100K
ACM Excess Deaths 10/100K
Non-Covid Excess Deaths 6.6/100K
Lets adjust for a 45 week period
COVID 36 100K
ACM Excess Deaths 107/ 100K
Non-Covid Excess Deaths 71/100K
Ok, so maybe thats not fair as I picked a month in which Excess Deaths was at a 6 month high, but still, its highly disturbing given the 6 months average (March-August) of Pct Expected Deaths is 112% vs 119% for August, and cutting the above numbers by 2/3 still leaves a worrisome signal
Also, I must point out using 2015-2019 averages as a base line as the study did (2017-2019 for CDC) is misleading since you would expect that Expected Deaths would be lower in late 2021/2022 given the high number of Excess Deaths experienced prior to Delta/Omicron eras. Excess Deaths are likely understated for this reason