Ed Dowd on Disability Data and Millennial Excess Deaths- A Closer Look.
So many of you have seen Ed Dowd on Tucker Carlson show
https://www.brighteon.com/60e42e19-db36-4525-9464-1bd8399c7fa8
Ed has made some good observations on excess deaths and disabilities, but like some in the anti-vaccine mandate movement, is prone to exaggeration.
I am not criticizing him. I like to think his intentions are noble. Its unfortunate but many people don’t pay much attention to anything that doesn’t shock , anger them, or terrify them. So the thinking is to get them paying attention. Yet I think the people on the other side who count the most, will see through this and end up distrusting the side doing this. As such it may be counterproductive.
Frankly I seem to spend more time correcting those on my side for this reason.
So this amoeba will now try and correct Ed
Edwards particular emphasis is in deaths and disabilities in the working age crowd. No doubt, there has been too much of that, but perhaps not as much or as severe as he suggests
From his book Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 and 2022,”
In the first week of January 2022 OneAmerica CEO Scott Davison made comments to a Commerce meeting that were soon picked up by some media outlets: “We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica. The data is consistent across every player in that business.” Davison said the increase in deaths represented “huge, huge numbers,” and that it wasn’t elderly people who were dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who were employees of companies with group life insurance plans through OneAmerica. “And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.
In 2020 there were 126,000 excess deaths under the age of 65, or approximately 21%. In Year 2 of the Pandemic, there were 181,000 excess deaths of people under the age of 65, or approximately 35%. But the millennials saw the most enormous increase: 45%, from 42,000 excess deaths to 61,000 excess deaths.
Millennials were the largest generation group in the U.S. in 2021, with an estimated population of 72.19 million.
Those excess deaths are 0.08% of the population. 1/1250 . Tragic for those who died but some of them died from COVID,suicides, drug overdoses. There were no vaccines in 2020 which had only 19,000 fewer excess deaths. Lets assume 19,000 were all on the vaccine. Thats 0.03%. 1/3,300. Tragic, no doubt, especially as this group is not much at risk from COVID. The vaccines should be pulled from the market.
But nowhere near the National Security Concern he claims. Even before the Pandemic 36,000 millennials died “deaths of despair” in 2017, with fatal drug overdoses being the biggest driver. This number is no doubt higher. And over 100,000 millennials die each year in a normal year from all causes
Insurance industry research in 2016 concluded that group life policyholders die at one-third the rate of the general U.S. population, so they're the healthiest among us. Group life policyholders are those employed with Fortune 500 companies, who tend to be younger and well-educated.
Ed goes on to say
in 2021, that flipped. Ages 25 through 64 of the group life policyholders suddenly experienced 40% excess mortality, compared to 32% in the general population. In short, a far healthier subset of the population suddenly died at a higher rate than the general population
This is wrong, a 40% increase in rate of death in the policyholder population that dies at a rate of only 1/3 of the general population that itself has increased its death rate by 32% means the policyholder population is dying at 35% of the rate of the general population instead of 33% . This is basic math.
Now what about 2022. Here we have some recent numbers provided by Edward, which still shows a concerning number of excess deaths but its definitely trending down through the 2nd quarter at least
Still on the high side but they are lower than the pre-vaccine numbers in 2020.
Lets move on to Disabilities. Its here I have my biggest gripe.
From his book.
Prior to mass vaccination, the run rate was about 29-30 million disabled Americans of working age, give or take, for the last five years. Since mass vaccination commenced in 2021, the number of disabled Americans has increased to almost 33 million. That means nearly 3.5 million more Americans of working age are now too disabled to work.
Correction-Over half of the 33 million disabled are 65 and over and not part of the labor force
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/disabl.nr0.htm
There are only 16.4 million disabled that are aged 16-64 and 5.7 million of these Disabled are working as of the end of 2022. This is up from with 15.2 million disabled (16-64) in 2019 and 4.7 million (working) in 2019.
2019 was the last pre-pandemic year so I am using this year as a basis of comparison instead of 2020 which was a Pandemic + Lockdown year.
Thats an increase of 1.2 million (16-64) Disabled , not an increase of 3.5 million Disabled all of whom are unable to work. More interesting is that of the 1.2 million new disabled (aged 16-64) 1 million are working (83%) . This greatly exceeds the normal ratio of about 30% of the disabled being in the labor force
What this suggests is that the increase in disability as a result of COVID OR vaccines is not preventing many people from working
I do not mean to discount the effects of their disability (quality of work and life), but this isn’t a matter of National Security. What is a matter of National Security is we have people in power that are thoroughly corrupted who have approved these unsafe products (Remdesivir and Vaccines) , Lockdowns and treatment protocols for COVID that has resulted in 1.8 million dead Americans over 3 years
Here are the data
2021-2022
2020-2021
2019-2020
2019-2022
Now you will rightly spit out your coffee as you read the below excerpts but I will address the Long Covid issue (which could be conflated with Vaccine Injury) at the end
Although most of those infected with COVID-19 have recovered relatively quickly, a substantial share has not, and remains symptomatic months or even years later, in what is commonly referred to as long COVID. Data on the incidence of long COVID is scarce, but recent Census Bureau data suggest that sixteen million working age Americans suffer from it.
The economic costs of long COVID is estimated to be in the trillions. While many with long COVID have dropped out of the labor force because they can no longer work, many others appear to be working despite having disabilities related to the disease.
Indeed, there has been an increase of around 1.7 million disabled persons in the U.S. since the pandemic began, and there are close to one million newly disabled workers. These disabled workers can benefit from workplace accommodations to help them remain productive and stay on the job, particularly as the majority deal with fatigue and brain fog, the hallmarks of long COVID.
COVID-19 Was a Disabling Event. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 19 percent of people who have been infected with COVID currently have some form of long COVID. Some of these so-called long-haulers have relatively mild symptoms that may not significantly interfere with daily life, but others have symptoms serious enough that they have become disabled.
Indeed, one study has found that the average level of disability among those with long COVID is similar to Crohn’s disease and the long-term consequences of moderately severe traumatic brain injury. It is not clear if, when, and how those with long COVID will recover. A recent study suggests many eventually do, but the disease is still new, and much remains unknown.
Although data on the disability status of long-haulers is scarce, I examine trends in self-reported disability from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The chart below plots the number of working age people reporting six different forms of disability: (1) physical difficulty walking or climbing stairs; (2) hearing difficulties; (3) vision difficulties; (4) difficulty concentrating or remembering; (5) difficulty performing basic activities outside the home alone; and (6) a physical or mental health condition that makes it difficult to take care of personal needs.
These categories are not mutually exclusive, as respondents can report more than one.
This is a self-reported disability status, and is independent of whether a person receives or is qualified to receive any type of disability benefits. The top line in the chart is the number of people reporting any type of disability, and so measures the total number of disabled persons.
There has been a cumulative increase of about 1.7 million working-age people reporting a disability since mid-2020, the point at which disability counts began to reverse course after a years-long decline.
Some of this increase may not be directly tied to long COVID (if the stress of the pandemic induced other medical problems, for example). But a recent study found that about a quarter of those with long COVID had altered their employment status or working hours, pointing to a condition serious enough to interfere with work for 4 million people. Thus a rough estimate that just under 2 million people have become disabled primarily due to long COVID seems plausible.
Of note, disability counts were generally flat to declining in all categories for several years leading up to the pandemic, suggesting that these figures represent a conservative estimate of working-age adults disabled from long COVID.
Somewhat encouragingly, disability counts have come down in recent months, suggesting some with long COVID have recovered to the point where they no longer consider themselves disabled.
One of the hallmarks of long COVID is a type of cognitive impairment called brain fog, which appears to be driving an increase of 1.3 million people reporting difficulties with concentration or memory since mid-2020. These figures suggest that about 75 percent of the disabled with long COVID have cognitive difficulties, in the same ballpark as a recent study which found that cognitive issues were reported by 88 percent of long-haulers.
Some with long COVID appear to be cutting back hours or dropping out of the labor force altogether. However, many appear to be continuing to participate in the labor market, making them a more common feature in the workplace. As shown in the chart below, since February 2020, there has been an increase of about 900,000 disabled working-age persons who are employed, and a small increase in the disabled who are unemployed, resulting in a net increase of close to one million disabled persons in the labor force since the pandemic began.
Long COVID varies in terms of its symptoms and severity, but its core symptoms include fatigue, brain fog, and muscle/joint pain
Type of Disability
Notice how most of the newly disabled seems to be cognitive difficulty (brain fog or psgychological)
Now I am not saying the Vaccines are not playing a role here. And perhaps many who are responding to these surveys believe they have Long Covid and don’t suspect the Vaccines role. Maybe some are just psychologically damaged or depressed after 2-3 miserable years where they have been isolated, masked and terrorized by an invisible virus and terrorist tactics by public health officials and MSM
Edward discusses Long Covid a bit with Tucker
Tucker Carlson: “There has never been a study linking so-called long COVID to excess mortality?”
Edward Dowd: “No. And we don’t even have a clinical definition for long COVID yet because I suspect if they come up with a clinical definition, it would mimic a lot of the adverse events we found in the vaccine
This lack of studies is not quite right
One of the largest studies of Covid-19 “long haulers” has proved what many doctors suspected: Not only are many patients suffering a raft of health problems six months after infection, they’re also at significantly greater risk of dying.
Survivors had a 59% increased risk of dying within six months after contracting the SARS-CoV-2 virus, researchers reported Thursday i. 8 extra deaths per 1000 patients
Beyond the first 30 days of illness, individuals with COVID-19 had an increased risk of death (hazard ratio of 1.59 (1.46–1.73)). We also estimated the adjusted excess burden of death due to COVID-19 per 1,000 persons at 6 months on the basis of the difference between the estimated incidence rate in individuals with COVID-19 and all VHA users. The excess death was estimated at 8.39 (7.09–9.58) per 1,000 patients with COVID-19 at 6 months. Individuals with COVID-19 had a higher risk of requiring outpatient care (hazard ratio of 1.20 (1.19–1.21)), at an excess burden of 33.22 (30.89–35.58; all excess burdens are given per 1,000 patients with COVID-19 at 6 months) and at a greater frequency of 0.47 (0.44–0.49) additional encounters every 30 days
To our knowledge, this is the largest study of the post-acute sequelae of COVID-19; it involves 73,435 non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and 4,990,835 control individuals (corresponding to 2,070,615.52 per- son years of follow-up), as well as 13,654 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and 13,997 patients hospitalized with seasonal influenza (corresponding to 12,179.05 person years of follow-up)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03553-9.pdf
The interesting thing about the study is this preceded the vaccine roll out so cant be conflated with vaccine injury
Of course, I am not sure we can trust any study these days but we cant say there have been no studies
Ed is right that many Long Covid symptoms and Vaccine AE may be the same. After all, they both have spike in common.
Thats all I got.