Closing Out 2022-Taiwan Excess Deaths and Population
Taiwan data for 2022 is now complete.
https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/en/2121?sn=23009515&p=1
207,230 Total Deaths. Up 19.7% from the 2016-2020 average.
Births are 138,986, up almost 1000 from what was reported last week in the papers which I used for my last post but the yoy decline was still a hefty 9.6% (down from the 10.3% I calculated based on the papers report) and just a tad higher (~3%) than declines in recent years
More detail here
Here is a picture
Excess Deaths (compared to 2016-2020 average)
34,064 excess deaths in 2022. To put into context for Americans that would be 510,960 deaths if Taiwan was the size of the US which is about the US average annual excess death these 3 years. So Taiwan was late to the party although it did have 10,566 excess deaths in 2021 (all starting from May 2021), with only 850 going down as COVID deaths (8.0%). I have not seen that ratio anywhere else.
Total Excess Deaths since Vaccination Began in April 2021 is 44,630 and over 29,800 Non-Covid Excess Deaths (66.6%). There were no excess deaths and only a handful of COVID deaths before May 2021,
Now, back to 2022, there were 14,700 COVID DEATHS (43.2%)
19,364 NON-COVID DEATHS (56.8%) among the 34,064 Excess Deaths . This is close to the ratio seen in US since March 2022.
Taiwan is now in its 3rd Omicron era wave, but fortunately each successive wave appears smaller than the last. While I don’t want to speculate, vaccine booster doses administered are plunging, down to roughly 8000 doses per day (excluding holidays)
In any event, here is a picture of the 2022 COVID situation
While cases would show a flattening if I updated it with last few days data, deaths -which lag , are spiking.
Taiwan is actually facing a Tripledemic population wise, between declining births which has been an ongoing problem for a couple of decades now we see increasing deaths and in the last 3 years increasing outward migration resulting in population drops the last 3 years. This migration is probably mostly COVID related and hopefully reverses
Year. Pop. Pop. Migration
End. (Million) Decline. (- is outward)
2022- 23,26 -110,670 -42,430
2021- 23.38 -185,922. -156,010
2020- 23.56 -41,855. -33,948
2019- 23.60. 14,189. 12,718
2018- 23.59. 17,705. 8,868
2017- 23.57 31,411. 8,799
2016- 23.54 47,742. 11,677
Anyways, this will be my last update on Taiwan Excess Deaths/Births unless something drastically changes for better or worse.
Here are the previous posts
Deaths+ Births-July
Deaths-July
Deaths-August
Births-August
Deaths-September
Deaths-October
Deaths-November
Deaths-December
Births-2022
Thanks for your work Pete, I was hoping I'd come across someone looking specifically at Taiwanese Covid/death statistics one day, as mordid as that sounds!
Over the last couple of months (although your data would suggest far longer) I have started to notice that I'm hearing ambulances daily, often multiple times per day, I live in the Taiwanese countryside so would expect I'd be more sensitive than say someone living in downtown to such an increase. I can only imagine the ambulance call out rates must of gone through the roof as of course, plenty of weekly Covid/Non-Covid excess death but surely many more call outs that don't end in the morgue, what with a disproportionate amount of working age people obviously struggling with these mysterious (excess) Non-Covid issues..