This will be a short one for me. In going over some of my older phone notes I found this nugget. Assuming my math is right its pretty interesting (I don’t feel like rechecking it on my old smart phone). The links provided.
Just by way of clarification as the note might not be that clear, the COVID tracker data set provided daily COVID hospitalizations and COVID deaths up until March 7, 2021. They don’t specify where the deaths took place (in or out of hospital).
But we can calculate the COVID DEATHS/COVID hospitalization ratio. All things being equal they should be equal for the 3 periods covered. If the ratio increased we may assume patients in hospital are dying at higher rates or more are dying outside of hospital. With better treatments over time one can discount a higher hospital fatality rate and assume more COVID deaths were happening outside the hospital (eg died suddenly).
August 20,2021
1/Playing with COVID tracker data (terminated service after March 7) yields some Very interesting findings
https://api.covidtracking.com/v1/us/daily.csv
2/COVID Deaths.
2020 April 1-June 7. 101,954
2020 Oct 24-Dec 31. 120,795
2021 Jan 1-Mar 7 175,826
The latter period is the period when vaccination rates picked up steam. Lets call that the COVID Vaccination Wave
3/ COVID Hospitalized
2020 April 1-June 7. 191,103
2020 Oct 24-Dec 31. 235,105
2021 Jan 1-March 7- 191,269
3/Deaths/Hospitalized %
April 1-June 7. 52%
Oct 24-Dec 31. 51%
Jan1-Mar 7, 2021. 92%
Wow!
4/Expected Deaths Jan 1-March 7, 2021
99,460 Expected Deaths based on Hospitalizations
Excess COVID Deaths-76,366
5/Seems clear many more deaths called COVID among those not hospitalized for COVID in the COVID Vaccination Wave . Since we have better treatment one would expect a greater survival rate among those hospitalized. Unfortunately they don’t provide number of “in hospital deaths “
Unless there is some other explanation for a significant increase in deaths among those hospitalized I am assuming these are vaccine deaths attributed to COVID. Prove me wrong
Could these Excess COVID Deaths be Vaccine Deaths . 76,366 deaths in less than 10 weeks?
As of March 12,2021, 100 million Covid-19 vaccine doses were administered to 70 million adults . A 0.076% fatality rate (per dose) or 0.11% per person vaccinated
<Dennis Rancourt has recently estimated a fatality rate of 0.3% per person vaccinated (based on 17 million estimated deaths, 5.5 billion vaccinated) . My number is much lower despite vaccinations as of March 2021 being predominately in the elderly who are more likely to suffer vaccine death. Possible reason for that is not all vaccine deaths were being attributed to COVID >
Unfortunately they suddenly ended the Covid tracking on March 7 so I cant compare the present with the older data
Fast forward to today, 676,728,782 doses administered.
At 0.076% fatality rate per dose, thats over 514,000 deaths. Of course, its likely lower going forward due to younger population getting the vax and possible quality improvements, although that might be offset with higher rates for those getting multiple boosters.
Using Dennis Rancourt 17,000,000 estimated deaths globally, we have 0.12% deaths per dose based on 13.53 billion doses
Using 0.12% deaths per dose for the US gives us 811,000 Vaccine Deaths
So anyways, we will never know how many deaths were attributed to the vaccine in the US, and whatever it is its still probably piling up due to damage caused to heart, blood vessels, brain, liver, immune systems, etc.
Unfortunately there are those exaggerating its negative effects when no such exaggeration is needed. Many people will have done fine, whether thats due to luck (clean lots) or genetic roulette I don’t know.
Some of them are controlled opposition whose purpose is to discredit anyone who says anything negative about the vaccines. Others do so for the $$$ by delivering what their subscribers want.
In the end you got to make up your own mind.
End
The ratio you really need is covid deaths in hospital / covid hospitalizations. Many covid deaths in 2020 occurred in nursing homes/LTCFs. The burnout of that dry tinder could have affected the ratio you measured, but I doubt it could explain all of the excess deaths you've noted.